FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Dmytro

Semenov

CBUkraine · Obolon Kyiv

№ 495918Emerging €601k −0.41

Player dossierPremier Liha

DmytroSemenov

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Obolon Kyiv
League
Premier Liha
Nationality
Ukraine
Age
26
Height
184 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
2 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Semenov at €400k. Model A, which never saw Semenov during training, estimates €601k: the market value is 33% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.50. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.9M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.41A €601k▼ −1.58B €1.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
54
Minutes
4,208
Goals
1
Assists
3
Started
46/54
Min / app
78
Cards
11Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Semenov…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €400k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €400kModel A €601k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Dmytro Semenov's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 42nd, Assists per 90 65th, Minutes, two years 73rd, Starts 56th, Minutes, last 365 days 68th, European club minutes 30th42ndGoals65thAssists73rdMinutes56thStarts68thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

4,208 this player2,860 defender median73rd percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,111

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Dec 2019
Peak
€400k
Mar 2026
Model target
€400k
Jun 2026
Valuations
15
5 club changes
Jun 2026€400kObolon KyivValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €400k, Obolon Kyiv. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-12-18€25kMFC Mykolaiv
2020-07-24€75kAlbatroz SC/FS Jelgava
2021-03-23€50kKremin Kremenchuk
2021-06-17€75kKremin Kremenchuk
2021-12-06€150kKryvbas Kryvyi Rig
2022-05-18€150kKryvbas Kryvyi Rig
2022-12-06€300kKryvbas Kryvyi Rig
2023-06-21€300kKryvbas Kryvyi Rig
2023-12-11€200kKryvbas Kryvyi Rig
2024-06-06€100kKryvbas Kryvyi Rig
2024-12-17€300kLivyi Bereg Kyiv
2025-06-10€300kLivyi Bereg Kyiv
2025-12-18€300kObolon Kyiv
2026-03-23€400kObolon Kyiv
2026-06-02€400kObolon Kyiv

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.407

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liha414 players · median €400k

Valued above 40% of the 414 Premier Liha players.

€50k€200k€1M€5M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 14% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Semenov appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).