William
Saliba
CBFrance · Arsenal FC
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierPremier League
WilliamSaliba
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- Arsenal FC
- League
- Premier League
- Nationality
- France
- Age
- 25
- Height
- 192 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 3 Jun 2026
Premier LeagueReading the valuation
The market values Saliba at €100M. Model A, which never saw Saliba during training, estimates €74.1M: the market value is 35% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.35. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €43.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 96
- Minutes
- 8,285
- Goals
- 3
- Assists
- 1
- Started
- 94/96
- Min / app
- 86
- Cards
- 5Y 1R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Saliba…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €100M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
Minutes, two years
Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.
8,285 this player2,860 defender median100th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €3M
- Oct 2018
- Peak
- €100M
- Jun 2026
- Model target
- €100M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 23
- 4 club changes
Jun 2026: €100M, Arsenal FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2018-10-24 | €3M | AS Saint-Étienne |
| 2018-12-17 | €3M | AS Saint-Étienne |
| 2019-06-03 | €12M | AS Saint-Étienne |
| 2019-09-27 | €25M | AS Saint-Étienne |
| 2019-12-19 | €25M | AS Saint-Étienne |
| 2020-04-08 | €22.5M | AS Saint-Étienne |
| 2020-10-13 | €22.5M | Arsenal FC |
| 2020-12-17 | €17M | Arsenal FC |
| 2021-06-04 | €18M | OGC Nice |
| 2021-12-16 | €24M | Olympique Marseille |
| 2022-05-30 | €30M | Olympique Marseille |
| 2022-09-15 | €40M | Arsenal FC |
| 2022-11-03 | €50M | Arsenal FC |
| 2023-03-16 | €55M | Arsenal FC |
| 2023-06-20 | €65M | Arsenal FC |
| 2023-10-09 | €70M | Arsenal FC |
| 2023-12-19 | €75M | Arsenal FC |
| 2024-03-14 | €80M | Arsenal FC |
| 2024-05-27 | €80M | Arsenal FC |
| 2024-12-16 | €80M | Arsenal FC |
| 2025-05-30 | €80M | Arsenal FC |
| 2025-12-09 | €90M | Arsenal FC |
| 2026-06-03 | €100M | Arsenal FC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.300
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premier League555 players · median €18M
Joint 4th highest observed value among 555 Premier League players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
The highest observed value among 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Saliba appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- SzoboszlaiAMLiverpool FC · Premier League€100M
- PalmerAMChelsea FC · Premier League€100M
- WirtzAMLiverpool FC · Premier League€100M
- CaicedoDMChelsea FC · Premier League€100M
- HakimiRBParis Saint-Germain · defenders€80M
- MendesLBParis Saint-Germain · defenders€80M
- PachoCBParis Saint-Germain · defenders€80M
- CubarsíCBFC Barcelona · defenders€80M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).