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Roberto

Fernández

CBParaguay · Dynamo Moscow

№ 491589Established €1.4M +0.61

Player dossierPremier Liga

RobertoFernández

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Dynamo Moscow
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Paraguay
Age
25
Height
188 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Fernández at €2.5M. Model A, which never saw Fernández during training, estimates €1.4M: the market value is 83% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.83. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.6M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.61A €1.4M▲ +0.46B €1.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
47
Minutes
3,484
Goals
1
Assists
1
Started
41/47
Min / app
74
Cards
14Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Fernández…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2.5MModel A €1.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Roberto Fernández's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 45th, Assists per 90 41st, Minutes, two years 62nd, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 40th, European club minutes 30th45thGoals41stAssists62ndMinutes62ndStarts40thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

3,484 this player2,860 defender median62nd percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,111

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€350k
Mar 2020
Peak
€3.5M
Jun 2024
Model target
€2.5M
May 2026
Valuations
17
1 club change
May 2026€2.5MDynamo MoscowValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €2.5M, Dynamo Moscow. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-03-02€350kClub Guaraní
2020-04-08€325kClub Guaraní
2020-10-14€325kClub Guaraní
2021-02-04€1MClub Guaraní
2021-06-28€1MClub Guaraní
2021-12-09€1.3MClub Guaraní
2022-06-15€1.3MClub Guaraní
2022-09-12€3MDynamo Moscow
2022-11-21€3MDynamo Moscow
2023-06-14€3MDynamo Moscow
2023-12-13€3MDynamo Moscow
2024-06-04€3.5MDynamo Moscow
2024-12-12€3.5MDynamo Moscow
2025-06-04€3.5MDynamo Moscow
2025-09-18€3MDynamo Moscow
2025-12-16€2.8MDynamo Moscow
2026-05-26€2.5MDynamo Moscow

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.606

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 70% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€2.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 54% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Fernández appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).