FairValue

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Portrait of Ao Tanaka

Ao

Tanaka

CMJapan · Leeds United

№ 489359Elite €12.2M +0.06

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

AoTanaka

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Leeds United
League
Premier League
Nationality
Japan
Age
27
Height
180 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Tanaka at €13M. Model A, which never saw Tanaka during training, estimates €12.2M: the market value is 6% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.06. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.06A €12.2M▲ +1.65B €2.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
33
Minutes
1,699
Goals
4
Assists
0
Started
19/33
Min / app
51
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Tanaka…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €13M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €13MModel A €12.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Ao Tanaka's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 84th, Assists per 90 8th, Minutes, two years 29th, Starts 31st, Minutes, last 365 days 55th, European club minutes 30th84thGoals8thAssists29thMinutes31stStarts55thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.21 this player0.08 midfielder median84th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Mar 2017
Peak
€13M
Jun 2026
Model target
€13M
Jun 2026
Valuations
22
2 club changes
Jun 2026€13MLeeds UnitedValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €13M, Leeds United. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-03-25€50kKawasaki Frontale
2018-01-05€50kKawasaki Frontale
2019-01-05€50kKawasaki Frontale
2019-06-27€400kKawasaki Frontale
2019-12-28€1MKawasaki Frontale
2020-04-08€900kKawasaki Frontale
2021-01-29€1.5MKawasaki Frontale
2021-06-29€1.7MKawasaki Frontale
2021-12-15€1.5MFortuna Düsseldorf
2022-06-16€1.5MFortuna Düsseldorf
2022-11-14€1.8MFortuna Düsseldorf
2022-12-23€2.5MFortuna Düsseldorf
2023-06-28€2.5MFortuna Düsseldorf
2023-10-20€2MFortuna Düsseldorf
2023-12-15€2.5MFortuna Düsseldorf
2024-03-22€3.5MFortuna Düsseldorf
2024-06-06€4MFortuna Düsseldorf
2024-12-30€4MLeeds United
2025-03-28€8MLeeds United
2025-05-27€10MLeeds United
2025-12-09€10MLeeds United
2026-06-03€13MLeeds United

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.061

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 40% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€13MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 83% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€13MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Tanaka appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).