FairValue

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Lorenzo

Pirola

CBItaly · Olympiacos Piraeus

№ 487834Elite €7.5M +0.39

Player dossierSuper League

LorenzoPirola

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Olympiacos Piraeus
League
Super League
Nationality
Italy
Age
24
Height
188 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Pirola at €11M. Model A, which never saw Pirola during training, estimates €7.5M: the market value is 47% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.47. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €6.8M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.39A €7.5M▲ +0.49B €6.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
54
Minutes
4,103
Goals
1
Assists
1
Started
47/54
Min / app
76
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Pirola…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €11M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €11MModel A €7.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Lorenzo Pirola's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 42nd, Assists per 90 39th, Minutes, two years 71st, Starts 61st, Minutes, last 365 days 66th, European club minutes 96th42ndGoals39thAssists71stMinutes61stStarts66thRecent96thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

31% this player0% defender median96th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€400k
Oct 2019
Peak
€11M
Jun 2026
Model target
€11M
Jun 2026
Valuations
17
4 club changes
Jun 2026€11MOlympiacos PiraeusValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €11M, Olympiacos Piraeus. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-10-08€400kInter Milan Primavera
2019-12-12€1MInter Milan Primavera
2020-04-08€900kInter Milan
2020-08-25€1.5MInter Milan
2021-02-22€1.2MAC Monza
2021-06-24€2.5MAC Monza
2021-12-29€2.2MAC Monza
2022-06-06€2.2MAC Monza
2022-11-11€2.5MUS Salernitana 1919
2023-03-21€3MUS Salernitana 1919
2023-06-15€8MUS Salernitana 1919
2023-12-20€7MUS Salernitana 1919
2024-06-05€5.5MUS Salernitana 1919
2024-12-18€5.5MOlympiacos Piraeus
2025-05-23€6MOlympiacos Piraeus
2025-12-12€9MOlympiacos Piraeus
2026-06-04€11MOlympiacos Piraeus

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.387

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Joint 5th highest observed value among 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€11MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 83% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€11MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Pirola appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).