FairValue

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Portrait of Pedro Neto

Pedro

Neto

RWPortugal · Chelsea FC

№ 487465World Class €62.3M −0.04

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

PedroNeto

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
Chelsea FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
Portugal
Age
26
Height
174 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Neto at €60M. Model A, which never saw Neto during training, estimates €62.3M: the market value is 4% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.04. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €70.4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.04A €62.3M▼ −0.16B €70.4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
95
Minutes
6,728
Goals
17
Assists
16
Started
76/95
Min / app
71
Cards
16Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Neto…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €60M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €60MModel A €62.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Pedro Neto's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 43rd, Assists per 90 74th, Minutes, two years 99th, Starts 83rd, Minutes, last 365 days 100th, European club minutes 81st43rdGoals74thAssists99thMinutes83rdStarts100thRecent81stEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

4,283 this player1,301 attacker median100th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,703

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€250k
Aug 2017
Peak
€60M
Dec 2025
Model target
€60M
Jun 2026
Valuations
30
3 club changes
Jun 2026€60MChelsea FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €60M, Chelsea FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-08-21€250kSC Braga
2017-10-13€3MSS Lazio
2017-12-29€3MSS Lazio
2018-06-07€3MSS Lazio
2018-12-20€2.5MSS Lazio
2019-06-06€2.5MSS Lazio
2019-09-12€7MWolverhampton Wanderers
2019-12-10€7MWolverhampton Wanderers
2020-03-09€13MWolverhampton Wanderers
2020-04-08€11.5MWolverhampton Wanderers
2020-07-30€15MWolverhampton Wanderers
2020-10-13€22MWolverhampton Wanderers
2020-12-17€27MWolverhampton Wanderers
2021-03-18€35MWolverhampton Wanderers
2021-06-08€35MWolverhampton Wanderers
2021-12-23€35MWolverhampton Wanderers
2022-06-15€32MWolverhampton Wanderers
2022-09-15€38MWolverhampton Wanderers
2022-11-03€32MWolverhampton Wanderers
2023-06-20€28MWolverhampton Wanderers
2023-10-09€32MWolverhampton Wanderers
2023-12-19€42MWolverhampton Wanderers
2024-03-14€55MWolverhampton Wanderers
2024-05-27€55MWolverhampton Wanderers
2024-12-16€55MChelsea FC
2025-03-18€50MChelsea FC
2025-05-30€50MChelsea FC
2025-10-17€55MChelsea FC
2025-12-09€60MChelsea FC
2026-06-03€60MChelsea FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.038

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 92% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€60MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 98% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€60MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Neto appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).