FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Portrait of Nico González

Nico

González

LWArgentina · Atlético de Madrid

№ 486031Elite €15.7M +0.34

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierLaLiga

NicoGonzález

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
Atlético de Madrid
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Argentina
Age
28
Height
180 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values González at €22M. Model A, which never saw González during training, estimates €15.7M: the market value is 40% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.40. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €13.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.34A €15.7M▲ +0.48B €13.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
77
Minutes
4,307
Goals
10
Assists
4
Started
52/77
Min / app
56
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for González…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €22M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €22MModel A €15.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Nico González's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 38th, Assists per 90 25th, Minutes, two years 84th, Starts 64th, Minutes, last 365 days 75th, European club minutes 85th38thGoals25thAssists84thMinutes64thStarts75thRecent85thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

21% this player0% attacker median85th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€400k
Oct 2017
Peak
€40M
Dec 2023
Model target
€22M
Jun 2026
Valuations
26
4 club changes
Jun 2026€22MAtlético de MadridValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €22M, Atlético de Madrid. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-10-09€400kAA Argentinos Juniors
2018-05-08€5MAA Argentinos Juniors
2018-08-22€8MVfB Stuttgart
2018-12-18€8MVfB Stuttgart
2019-06-05€6.5MVfB Stuttgart
2019-12-13€8MVfB Stuttgart
2020-04-08€7.2MVfB Stuttgart
2020-07-15€9MVfB Stuttgart
2020-09-16€12MVfB Stuttgart
2020-11-26€16MVfB Stuttgart
2021-02-10€25MVfB Stuttgart
2021-06-09€22MVfB Stuttgart
2021-10-14€24MACF Fiorentina
2021-12-28€24MACF Fiorentina
2022-06-07€25MACF Fiorentina
2022-11-11€23MACF Fiorentina
2023-03-21€28MACF Fiorentina
2023-06-15€30MACF Fiorentina
2023-10-11€35MACF Fiorentina
2023-12-20€40MACF Fiorentina
2024-06-05€35MACF Fiorentina
2024-12-18€35MJuventus FC
2025-03-25€28MJuventus FC
2025-06-17€24MJuventus FC
2025-12-12€24MAtlético de Madrid
2026-06-05€22MAtlético de Madrid

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.338

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 89% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€22MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 89% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€22MSee them in the Explorer →

Where González appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).