Lloyd

Kelly

CBEngland · Juventus FC

№ 480116Elite €23.2M −0.01

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Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierSerie A

LloydKelly

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club: Juventus FC
League: Serie A
Nationality: England
Age: 27
Height: 189 cm
Foot: Left
Valued: 29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Kelly at €23M. Model A, which never saw Kelly during training, estimates €23.2M: the market value is 1% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.01. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €17.7M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 76
Minutes: 5,946
Goals: 2
Assists: 3
Started: 67/76
Min / app: 78
Cards: 9Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Kelly…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €23M

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

4,276 this player1,687 defender median99th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,941

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €100k; Sept 2017
Peak: €23M; May 2026
Model target: €23M; May 2026
Valuations: 22; 3 club changes

May 2026€23MJuventus FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €23M, Juventus FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2017-09-18	€100k	Bristol City
2018-02-27	€250k	Bristol City
2018-09-24	€750k	Bristol City
2019-02-27	€2M	Bristol City
2019-06-28	€9M	Bristol City
2019-12-10	€9M	AFC Bournemouth
2020-04-08	€8M	AFC Bournemouth
2020-10-15	€7M	AFC Bournemouth
2021-03-10	€9M	AFC Bournemouth
2021-06-30	€10M	AFC Bournemouth
2021-11-24	€10M	AFC Bournemouth
2022-05-13	€12M	AFC Bournemouth
2022-09-15	€15M	AFC Bournemouth
2022-11-03	€15M	AFC Bournemouth
2023-06-20	€18M	AFC Bournemouth
2023-12-19	€16M	AFC Bournemouth
2024-05-27	€18M	AFC Bournemouth
2024-12-16	€18M	Newcastle United
2025-06-17	€16M	Juventus FC
2025-10-07	€18M	Juventus FC
2025-12-23	€20M	Juventus FC
2026-05-29	€23M	Juventus FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: −0.010

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 87% of the 507 Serie A players.

See them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 93% of the 2,065 defenders.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Kelly appears

TerminalSerie A in the Player Explorer
TerminalSerie A on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).