FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Portrait of Ryan Gravenberch

Ryan

Gravenberch

DMNetherlands · Liverpool FC

№ 478573World Class €68.7M +0.15

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

RyanGravenberch

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
Liverpool FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
Netherlands
Age
24
Height
190 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Gravenberch at €80M. Model A, which never saw Gravenberch during training, estimates €68.7M: the market value is 16% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.16. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €76.8M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.15A €68.7M▲ +0.04B €76.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
96
Minutes
8,084
Goals
6
Assists
10
Started
93/96
Min / app
84
Cards
15Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Gravenberch…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €80M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €80MModel A €68.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Ryan Gravenberch's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 42nd, Assists per 90 57th, Minutes, two years 99th, Starts 96th, Minutes, last 365 days 99th, European club minutes 86th42ndGoals57thAssists99thMinutes96thStarts99thRecent86thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

8,084 this player2,607 midfielder median99th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,624

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€5M
Oct 2018
Peak
€90M
Oct 2025
Model target
€80M
Jun 2026
Valuations
25
3 club changes
Jun 2026€80MLiverpool FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €80M, Liverpool FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-10-04€5MAjax Amsterdam U21
2018-12-28€5MAjax Amsterdam U21
2019-01-21€5MAjax Amsterdam U21
2019-06-12€5MAjax Amsterdam U21
2019-12-18€5MAjax Amsterdam
2020-02-11€12MAjax Amsterdam
2020-04-08€11MAjax Amsterdam
2020-10-14€11MAjax Amsterdam
2021-01-06€22MAjax Amsterdam
2021-03-09€28MAjax Amsterdam
2021-05-27€33MAjax Amsterdam
2022-01-05€35MAjax Amsterdam
2022-06-08€35MAjax Amsterdam
2022-11-09€30MBayern Munich
2023-06-22€30MBayern Munich
2023-10-09€35MLiverpool FC
2023-12-19€35MLiverpool FC
2024-05-27€35MLiverpool FC
2024-10-01€40MLiverpool FC
2024-12-16€55MLiverpool FC
2025-03-18€70MLiverpool FC
2025-05-30€75MLiverpool FC
2025-10-17€90MLiverpool FC
2025-12-09€90MLiverpool FC
2026-06-03€80MLiverpool FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.152

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 97% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€80MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 99% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€80MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Gravenberch appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).