Manuel
Ugarte
DMUruguay · Manchester United
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierPremier League
ManuelUgarte
DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- Manchester United
- League
- Premier League
- Nationality
- Uruguay
- Age
- 25
- Height
- 182 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 3 Jun 2026
Premier LeagueReading the valuation
The market values Ugarte at €25M. Model A, which never saw Ugarte during training, estimates €36.5M: the market value is 32% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.46. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €7.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 66
- Minutes
- 3,676
- Goals
- 2
- Assists
- 6
- Started
- 43/66
- Min / app
- 56
- Cards
- 16Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ugarte…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €25M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
18% this player0% midfielder median81st percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €50k
- Feb 2018
- Peak
- €60M
- Dec 2023
- Model target
- €25M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 23
- 4 club changes
Jun 2026: €25M, Manchester United. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2018-02-05 | €50k | CA Fénix |
| 2019-03-03 | €75k | CA Fénix |
| 2020-01-06 | €1M | CA Fénix |
| 2020-04-08 | €900k | CA Fénix |
| 2020-10-20 | €1.5M | CA Fénix |
| 2021-01-02 | €3M | CA Fénix |
| 2021-05-21 | €5M | FC Famalicão |
| 2021-09-21 | €6M | Sporting CP |
| 2021-12-27 | €8.5M | Sporting CP |
| 2022-03-10 | €12M | Sporting CP |
| 2022-05-31 | €15M | Sporting CP |
| 2022-11-01 | €18M | Sporting CP |
| 2023-03-02 | €25M | Sporting CP |
| 2023-06-16 | €50M | Sporting CP |
| 2023-10-16 | €55M | Paris Saint-Germain |
| 2023-12-18 | €60M | Paris Saint-Germain |
| 2024-06-03 | €45M | Paris Saint-Germain |
| 2024-10-01 | €50M | Manchester United |
| 2024-12-16 | €50M | Manchester United |
| 2025-05-30 | €45M | Manchester United |
| 2025-10-17 | €35M | Manchester United |
| 2025-12-09 | €30M | Manchester United |
| 2026-06-03 | €25M | Manchester United |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.378
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premier League555 players · median €18M
Valued above 63% of the 555 Premier League players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 91% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Ugarte appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- WilsonRWFulham FC · Premier League€25M
- WatkinsCFAston Villa · Premier League€25M
- KluivertAMAFC Bournemouth · Premier League€25M
- AdamsDMAFC Bournemouth · Premier League€25M
- LocatelliDMJuventus FC · midfielders€25M
- BergeDMFulham FC · midfielders€25M
- JoelintonCMNewcastle United · midfielders€25M
- ZakariaDMAS Monaco · midfielders€25M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).