FairValue

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Portrait of Wesley Fofana

Wesley

Fofana

CBFrance · Chelsea FC

№ 475411Elite €20.5M +0.31

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

WesleyFofana

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Chelsea FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
France
Age
25
Height
188 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Fofana at €28M. Model A, which never saw Fofana during training, estimates €20.5M: the market value is 37% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.37. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €8.4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.31A €20.5M▲ +1.20B €8.4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
51
Minutes
3,809
Goals
0
Assists
2
Started
44/51
Min / app
75
Cards
13Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Fofana…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €28M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €28MModel A €20.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Wesley Fofana's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 55th, Minutes, two years 67th, Starts 59th, Minutes, last 365 days 79th, European club minutes 75th18thGoals55thAssists67thMinutes59thStarts79thRecent75thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

2,633 this player1,687 defender median79th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,941

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€4M
Dec 2019
Peak
€65M
Sept 2022
Model target
€28M
Jun 2026
Valuations
21
2 club changes
Jun 2026€28MChelsea FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €28M, Chelsea FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-12-19€4MAS Saint-Étienne
2020-03-13€6MAS Saint-Étienne
2020-04-08€5.4MAS Saint-Étienne
2020-08-03€10MAS Saint-Étienne
2020-10-13€22.5MLeicester City
2020-12-17€27MLeicester City
2021-03-18€30MLeicester City
2021-06-08€40MLeicester City
2021-12-23€40MLeicester City
2022-06-15€40MLeicester City
2022-09-15€65MChelsea FC
2022-11-03€65MChelsea FC
2023-06-20€55MChelsea FC
2023-10-09€40MChelsea FC
2023-12-19€32MChelsea FC
2024-05-27€25MChelsea FC
2024-12-16€30MChelsea FC
2025-03-18€27MChelsea FC
2025-05-30€25MChelsea FC
2025-12-09€28MChelsea FC
2026-06-03€28MChelsea FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.314

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 69% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€28MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 95% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€28MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Fofana appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).