FairValue

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Portrait of Max Aarons

Max

Aarons

RBEngland · Rangers FC

№ 471690Established €2.1M +0.20

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremiership

MaxAarons

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
Rangers FC
League
Premiership
Nationality
England
Age
26
Height
177 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
20 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Aarons at €2.5M. Model A, which never saw Aarons during training, estimates €2.1M: the market value is 22% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.22. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.1M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.20A €2.1M▲ +0.19B €2.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
39
Minutes
1,993
Goals
1
Assists
0
Started
23/39
Min / app
51
Cards
9Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Aarons…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2.5MModel A €2.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Max Aarons's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 61st, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 34th, Starts 14th, Minutes, last 365 days 49th, European club minutes 98th61stGoals17thAssists34thMinutes14thStarts49thRecent98thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

41% this player0% defender median98th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€250k
Sept 2018
Peak
€22M
Mar 2020
Model target
€2.5M
May 2026
Valuations
24
3 club changes
May 2026€2.5MRangers FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €2.5M, Rangers FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-09-24€250kNorwich City
2019-02-27€5MNorwich City
2019-06-28€8MNorwich City
2019-12-10€15MNorwich City
2020-03-09€22MNorwich City
2020-04-08€20MNorwich City
2020-10-15€22MNorwich City
2020-12-22€20MNorwich City
2021-03-10€20MNorwich City
2021-06-30€22MNorwich City
2021-12-23€22MNorwich City
2022-06-15€22MNorwich City
2022-09-14€18MNorwich City
2022-10-27€18MNorwich City
2023-03-24€16MNorwich City
2023-06-01€16MNorwich City
2023-12-19€18MAFC Bournemouth
2024-05-27€16MAFC Bournemouth
2024-12-16€16MAFC Bournemouth
2025-03-21€12MValencia CF
2025-06-09€6MValencia CF
2025-10-08€5MRangers FC
2025-12-10€4MRangers FC
2026-05-20€2.5MRangers FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.196

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premiership311 players · median €400k

Valued above 86% of the 311 Premiership players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€2.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 54% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Aarons appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).