FairValue

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David

Zec

CBSlovenia · Holstein Kiel

№ 469709Established €7.3M −1.07

Player dossierBundesliga

DavidZec

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Holstein Kiel
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Slovenia
Age
25
Height
190 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
16 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Zec at €2.5M. Model A, which never saw Zec during training, estimates €7.3M: the market value is 66% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.92. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €6.5M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −1.07A €7.3M▼ −0.95B €6.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
28
Minutes
2,505
Goals
2
Assists
1
Started
28/28
Min / app
89
Cards
10Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Zec…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2.5MModel A €7.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

David Zec's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 76th, Assists per 90 48th, Minutes, two years 43rd, Starts 97th, Minutes, last 365 days 56th, European club minutes 92nd76thGoals48thAssists43rdMinutes97thStarts56thRecent92ndEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player83% defender median97th percentile

18%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jul 2017
Peak
€2.5M
Mar 2025
Model target
€2.5M
Dec 2025
Valuations
18
4 club changes
Dec 2025€2.5MHolstein KielValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €2.5M, Holstein Kiel. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-07-16€50kNK Triglav Kranj
2018-02-21€200kNK Triglav Kranj
2019-02-12€200kSL Benfica B
2019-06-29€250kSL Benfica B
2019-12-31€100kSL Benfica B
2020-10-16€100kRukh Lviv
2021-01-14€100kRukh Lviv
2021-06-07€200kRukh Lviv
2021-12-15€250kNK Celje
2022-06-27€250kNK Celje
2022-12-15€400kNK Celje
2023-05-25€500kNK Celje
2023-12-21€800kNK Celje
2024-05-24€800kNK Celje
2024-12-11€700kNK Celje
2025-03-27€2.5MHolstein Kiel
2025-06-05€2.5MHolstein Kiel
2025-12-16€2.5MHolstein Kiel

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−1.071

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 25% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€2.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 54% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Zec appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).