FairValue

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Portrait of Nico González

Nico

González

DMSpain · Manchester City

№ 466805World Class €53.8M −0.30

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

NicoGonzález

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
Manchester City
League
Premier League
Nationality
Spain
Age
24
Height
188 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values González at €40M. Model A, which never saw González during training, estimates €53.8M: the market value is 26% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.34. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €45.5M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.30A €53.8M▼ −0.13B €45.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
85
Minutes
5,781
Goals
11
Assists
6
Started
66/85
Min / app
68
Cards
23Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for González…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €40M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €40MModel A €53.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Nico González's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 77th, Assists per 90 50th, Minutes, two years 93rd, Starts 66th, Minutes, last 365 days 84th, European club minutes 83rd77thGoals50thAssists93rdMinutes66thStarts84thRecent83rdEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

5,781 this player2,607 midfielder median93rd percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,624

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Oct 2020
Peak
€45M
Dec 2025
Model target
€40M
Jun 2026
Valuations
18
4 club changes
Jun 2026€40MManchester CityValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €40M, Manchester City. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-10-08€100kFC Barcelona B
2021-01-08€500kFC Barcelona B
2021-06-30€500kFC Barcelona B
2021-10-13€8MFC Barcelona
2021-12-30€20MFC Barcelona
2022-03-21€25MFC Barcelona
2022-06-03€20MFC Barcelona
2022-11-07€14MValencia CF
2023-03-23€10MValencia CF
2023-06-13€10MValencia CF
2023-12-27€9MFC Porto
2024-03-08€10MFC Porto
2024-06-06€15MFC Porto
2024-12-19€18MFC Porto
2025-03-18€40MManchester City
2025-05-30€40MManchester City
2025-12-09€45MManchester City
2026-06-03€40MManchester City

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.296

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 83% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€40MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 96% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€40MSee them in the Explorer →

Where González appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).