FairValue

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Portrait of Andrej Kramaric

Andrej

Kramaric

SSCroatia · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim

№ 46580Established €3.6M −0.36

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierBundesliga

AndrejKramaric

SSSecond StrikerAttack

Club
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Croatia
Age
34
Height
177 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Kramaric at €2.5M. Model A, which never saw Kramaric during training, estimates €3.6M: the market value is 30% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.44. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.6M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.36A €3.6M▼ −0.05B €2.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
77
Minutes
5,925
Goals
26
Assists
18
Started
68/77
Min / app
77
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Kramaric…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2.5MModel A €3.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Andrej Kramaric's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 76th, Assists per 90 87th, Minutes, two years 97th, Starts 92nd, Minutes, last 365 days 84th, European club minutes 68th76thGoals87thAssists97thMinutes92ndStarts84thRecent68thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

5,925 this player2,242 attacker median97th percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●8,788

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€800k
Oct 2009
Peak
€38M
Jun 2019
Model target
€2.5M
May 2026
Valuations
40
4 club changes
May 2026€2.5MTSG 1899 HoffenheimValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €2.5M, TSG 1899 Hoffenheim. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2009-10-05€800kGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2010-01-28€1MGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2010-09-13€750kGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2011-02-13€500kGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2011-08-29€250kGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2012-02-29€250kNK Lokomotiva Zagreb
2012-09-30€500kNK Lokomotiva Zagreb
2013-03-03€1.3MNK Lokomotiva Zagreb
2013-10-08€1MHNK Rijeka
2014-03-11€2.5MHNK Rijeka
2014-10-01€4.5MHNK Rijeka
2015-02-12€8MLeicester City
2015-07-01€8MLeicester City
2016-02-15€5MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2016-06-01€7.5MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2016-07-22€9MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2017-02-07€9MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2017-06-19€15MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2017-12-28€15MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2018-06-05€27MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2018-07-16€35MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2018-12-18€35MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2019-06-05€38MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2019-12-17€38MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2020-04-08€30.5MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2020-09-16€27MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2020-11-26€32MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2021-02-10€32MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2021-05-28€28MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2021-10-07€23MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2021-12-22€18MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2022-06-09€12MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2022-11-09€9MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2023-06-22€8MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2023-12-14€6MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2024-05-29€5MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2024-12-20€4MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2025-06-05€4MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2025-12-19€3MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2026-05-27€2.5MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.364

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 25% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€2.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 48% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€2.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Kramaric appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).