FairValue

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Nicolas

Madsen

CMDenmark · Queens Park Rangers

№ 464599Established €5M −0.35

Player dossierPremier League

NicolasMadsen

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Queens Park Rangers
League
Premier League
Nationality
Denmark
Age
25
Height
192 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Madsen at €3.5M. Model A, which never saw Madsen during training, estimates €5M: the market value is 30% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.42. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.35A €5M▲ +0.93B €1.4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
20
Minutes
1,574
Goals
8
Assists
1
Started
18/20
Min / app
79
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Madsen…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3.5MModel A €5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Nicolas Madsen's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 99th, Assists per 90 32nd, Minutes, two years 26th, Starts 86th, Minutes, last 365 days 3rd, European club minutes 30th99thGoals32ndAssists26thMinutes86thStarts3rdRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.46 this player0.08 midfielder median99th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Dec 2018
Peak
€3.5M
Sept 2024
Model target
€3.5M
Dec 2025
Valuations
18
4 club changes
Dec 2025€3.5MQueens Park RangersValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €3.5M, Queens Park Rangers. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-12-21€100kFC Midtjylland U19
2019-06-08€100kFC Midtjylland U19
2019-12-22€250kFC Midtjylland U19
2020-07-31€300kFC Midtjylland
2020-12-23€400kFC Midtjylland
2021-06-04€600kFC Midtjylland
2022-01-05€800kSC Heerenveen
2022-06-08€750kSC Heerenveen
2022-11-04€1.2MKVC Westerlo
2023-06-09€2MKVC Westerlo
2023-10-23€1.5MKVC Westerlo
2023-12-19€1.8MKVC Westerlo
2024-03-22€2.5MKVC Westerlo
2024-06-04€2.5MKVC Westerlo
2024-09-24€3.5MQueens Park Rangers
2024-12-30€3.5MQueens Park Rangers
2025-05-27€3.5MQueens Park Rangers
2025-12-03€3.5MQueens Park Rangers

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.352

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 15% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€3.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 59% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€3.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Madsen appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).