Elías
Ólafsson
GKIceland · FC Midtjylland
Player dossierSuperliga
ElíasÓlafsson
GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper
- Club
- FC Midtjylland
- League
- Superliga
- Nationality
- Iceland
- Age
- 26
- Height
- 201 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 25 May 2026
SuperligaReading the valuation
The market values Ólafsson at €3M. Model A, which never saw Ólafsson during training, estimates €4.9M: the market value is 38% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.62. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €7.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 67
- Minutes
- 5,953
- Started
- 66/67
- Min / app
- 89
- Cards
- 0Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ólafsson…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €3M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers
Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
38% this player0% goalkeeper median98th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €50k
- Dec 2018
- Peak
- €3M
- May 2026
- Model target
- €3M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 15
- 5 club changes
May 2026: €3M, FC Midtjylland. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2018-12-21 | €50k | FC Midtjylland U19 |
| 2020-03-09 | €75k | Aarhus Fremad |
| 2020-12-23 | €200k | FC Fredericia |
| 2021-06-04 | €300k | FC Fredericia |
| 2021-10-06 | €700k | FC Midtjylland |
| 2021-12-28 | €700k | FC Midtjylland |
| 2022-06-20 | €700k | FC Midtjylland |
| 2022-12-22 | €700k | FC Midtjylland |
| 2023-06-26 | €600k | FC Midtjylland |
| 2023-12-14 | €600k | CD Mafra |
| 2024-06-20 | €650k | CD Mafra |
| 2024-12-09 | €1.5M | FC Midtjylland |
| 2025-06-16 | €1.5M | FC Midtjylland |
| 2025-12-15 | €2M | FC Midtjylland |
| 2026-05-25 | €3M | FC Midtjylland |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.481
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Superliga256 players · median €800k
Valued above 83% of the 256 Superliga players.
See them in the Explorer →Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M
Valued above 68% of the 485 goalkeepers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Ólafsson appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- HatzidiakosCBFC Copenhagen · Superliga€3M
- BeijmoCBAarhus GF · Superliga€3M
- AchouriLWFC Copenhagen · Superliga€3M
- KnudsenCMAarhus GF · Superliga€3M
- StegenGKGirona FC · goalkeepers€3M
- VlachodimosGKSevilla FC · goalkeepers€3M
- SchwäbeGK1.FC Köln · goalkeepers€3M
- ProvedelGKSS Lazio · goalkeepers€3M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).