FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Maksym

Melnychuk

LBUkraine · FC Kudrivka

№ 461666Emerging €343k +0.16

Player dossierPremier Liha

MaksymMelnychuk

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
FC Kudrivka
League
Premier Liha
Nationality
Ukraine
Age
26
Height
180 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
2 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Melnychuk at €400k. Model A, which never saw Melnychuk during training, estimates €343k: the market value is 17% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.17. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €707k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.16A €343k▼ −0.57B €707k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
27
Minutes
2,059
Goals
0
Assists
1
Started
24/27
Min / app
76
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Melnychuk…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €400k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €400kModel A €343k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Maksym Melnychuk's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 53rd, Minutes, two years 35th, Starts 66th, Minutes, last 365 days 37th, European club minutes 30th18thGoals53rdAssists35thMinutes66thStarts37thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

89% this player83% defender median66th percentile

18%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Jan 2020
Peak
€400k
Dec 2025
Model target
€400k
Jun 2026
Valuations
14
5 club changes
Jun 2026€400kFC KudrivkaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €400k, FC Kudrivka. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-01-08€100kVorskla Poltava II
2020-09-02€200kChornomorets Odesa
2020-12-05€175kChornomorets Odesa
2021-06-17€200kChornomorets Odesa
2021-12-20€100kIngulets Petrove
2022-05-18€100kIngulets Petrove
2022-12-06€200kVorskla Poltava
2023-06-21€200kIngulets Petrove
2023-12-11€300kIngulets Petrove
2024-06-06€350kIngulets Petrove
2024-12-17€300kIngulets Petrove
2025-06-10€300kFC Kudrivka
2025-12-18€400kFC Kudrivka
2026-06-02€400kFC Kudrivka

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.155

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liha414 players · median €400k

Valued above 40% of the 414 Premier Liha players.

€50k€200k€1M€5M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 14% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Melnychuk appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).