FairValue

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Portrait of Tijjani Reijnders

Tijjani

Reijnders

CMNetherlands · Manchester City

№ 460939World Class €55.4M −0.10

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

TijjaniReijnders

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Manchester City
League
Premier League
Nationality
Netherlands
Age
27
Height
178 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Reijnders at €50M. Model A, which never saw Reijnders during training, estimates €55.4M: the market value is 10% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.11. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €80M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.10A €55.4M▼ −0.47B €80M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
104
Minutes
7,672
Goals
22
Assists
13
Started
87/104
Min / app
74
Cards
5Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Reijnders…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €50M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €50MModel A €55.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Tijjani Reijnders's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 90th, Assists per 90 72nd, Minutes, two years 99th, Starts 77th, Minutes, last 365 days 93rd, European club minutes 88th90thGoals72ndAssists99thMinutes77thStarts93rdRecent88thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

7,672 this player2,607 midfielder median99th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,624

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Aug 2017
Peak
€70M
Oct 2025
Model target
€50M
Jun 2026
Valuations
27
6 club changes
Jun 2026€50MManchester CityValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €50M, Manchester City. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-08-13€50kPEC Zwolle
2017-10-26€150kAZ Alkmaar U21
2018-01-17€300kAZ Alkmaar
2018-06-12€500kAZ Alkmaar
2018-12-28€500kAZ Alkmaar
2019-01-21€500kAZ Alkmaar
2019-06-12€700kAZ Alkmaar
2019-12-18€700kAZ Alkmaar
2020-04-08€625kRKC Waalwijk
2020-10-14€625kAZ Alkmaar
2021-05-19€1MAZ Alkmaar
2022-01-05€1.2MAZ Alkmaar
2022-03-17€1.5MAZ Alkmaar
2022-06-08€1.5MAZ Alkmaar
2022-09-14€3MAZ Alkmaar
2022-11-11€6MAZ Alkmaar
2023-03-17€8MAZ Alkmaar
2023-06-23€14MAZ Alkmaar
2023-10-11€20MAC Milan
2023-12-20€23MAC Milan
2024-06-05€30MAC Milan
2024-12-18€50MAC Milan
2025-06-17€60MManchester City
2025-10-17€70MManchester City
2025-12-09€65MManchester City
2026-03-09€60MManchester City
2026-06-03€50MManchester City

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.102

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 88% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€50MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 97% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€50MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Reijnders appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).