Marco
Carnesecchi
GKItaly · Atalanta BC
Close-up
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierSerie A
MarcoCarnesecchi
GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper
- Club
- Atalanta BC
- League
- Serie A
- Nationality
- Italy
- Age
- 25
- Height
- 191 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 29 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Carnesecchi at €30M. Model A, which never saw Carnesecchi during training, estimates €21M: the market value is 43% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.43. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €29.3M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 95
- Minutes
- 8,580
- Started
- 95/95
- Min / app
- 90
- Cards
- 1Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Carnesecchi…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €30M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers
Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)
Minutes, last 365 days
Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.
4,530 this player1,560 goalkeeper median99th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €300k
- May 2019
- Peak
- €30M
- May 2026
- Model target
- €30M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 19
- 4 club changes
May 2026: €30M, Atalanta BC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2019-05-23 | €300k | Atalanta Primavera |
| 2019-12-30 | €2.3M | Trapani Calcio |
| 2020-04-08 | €2M | Trapani Calcio |
| 2020-08-21 | €2.1M | Trapani Calcio |
| 2020-12-29 | €2M | Atalanta BC |
| 2021-06-24 | €2.5M | US Cremonese |
| 2021-12-29 | €2.8M | US Cremonese |
| 2022-06-06 | €8M | US Cremonese |
| 2022-11-11 | €8M | US Cremonese |
| 2023-03-21 | €13M | US Cremonese |
| 2023-06-15 | €13M | US Cremonese |
| 2023-12-20 | €13M | Atalanta BC |
| 2024-03-12 | €15M | Atalanta BC |
| 2024-06-05 | €16M | Atalanta BC |
| 2024-12-18 | €20M | Atalanta BC |
| 2025-03-25 | €25M | Atalanta BC |
| 2025-06-17 | €25M | Atalanta BC |
| 2025-12-23 | €25M | Atalanta BC |
| 2026-05-29 | €30M | Atalanta BC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.358
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Serie A507 players · median €5.5M
Valued above 91% of the 507 Serie A players.
See them in the Explorer →Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M
Joint 8th highest observed value among 485 goalkeepers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Carnesecchi appears
- TerminalSerie A in the Player Explorer
- TerminalSerie A on the League Landscape
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- McKennieCMJuventus FC · Serie A€30M
- BuongiornoCBSSC Napoli · Serie A€30M
- KrstovićCFAtalanta BC · Serie A€30M
- KetelaereAMAtalanta BC · Serie A€30M
- RayaGKArsenal FC · goalkeepers€30M
- SafonovGKParis Saint-Germain · goalkeepers€30M
- RisserGKRC Lens · goalkeepers€30M
- HendersonGKCrystal Palace · goalkeepers€28M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).