FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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András

Schäfer

CMHungary · 1.FC Union Berlin

№ 454863Established €5.7M −0.23

Player dossierBundesliga

AndrásSchäfer

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
1.FC Union Berlin
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Hungary
Age
27
Height
178 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Schäfer at €4.5M. Model A, which never saw Schäfer during training, estimates €5.7M: the market value is 21% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.26. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.9M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.23A €5.7M▲ +0.84B €1.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
59
Minutes
3,299
Goals
3
Assists
2
Started
38/59
Min / app
56
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Schäfer…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €4.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €4.5MModel A €5.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

András Schäfer's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 49th, Assists per 90 31st, Minutes, two years 62nd, Starts 41st, Minutes, last 365 days 54th, European club minutes 30th49thGoals31stAssists62ndMinutes41stStarts54thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

3,299 this player2,607 midfielder median62nd percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,624

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Oct 2017
Peak
€5M
Nov 2022
Model target
€4.5M
May 2026
Valuations
22
4 club changes
May 2026€4.5M1.FC Union BerlinValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €4.5M, 1.FC Union Berlin. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-10-06€150kMTK Budapest
2018-03-15€175kMTK Budapest
2019-01-05€400kMTK Budapest
2019-06-06€400kGenoa CFC
2019-12-30€400kChievo Verona
2020-04-08€350kDAC Dunajska Streda
2020-07-10€400kDAC Dunajska Streda
2020-12-28€550kDAC Dunajska Streda
2021-06-01€700kDAC Dunajska Streda
2021-07-15€1.5MDAC Dunajska Streda
2021-12-26€1.6MDAC Dunajska Streda
2022-06-09€2M1.FC Union Berlin
2022-11-09€5M1.FC Union Berlin
2023-06-22€5M1.FC Union Berlin
2023-10-18€4M1.FC Union Berlin
2023-12-14€4M1.FC Union Berlin
2024-03-27€5M1.FC Union Berlin
2024-05-29€5M1.FC Union Berlin
2024-12-20€5M1.FC Union Berlin
2025-06-05€5M1.FC Union Berlin
2025-12-19€4.5M1.FC Union Berlin
2026-05-27€4.5M1.FC Union Berlin

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.231

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 45% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€4.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 64% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€4.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Schäfer appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).