FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Diant

Ramaj

GKGermany · 1.FC Heidenheim 1846

№ 448705Established €5M +0.33

Player dossierBundesliga

DiantRamaj

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
1.FC Heidenheim 1846
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Germany
Age
24
Height
189 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Ramaj at €7M. Model A, which never saw Ramaj during training, estimates €5M: the market value is 40% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.40. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.33A €5M▲ +1.13B €2.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
42
Minutes
3,780
Started
42/42
Min / app
90
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ramaj…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €7M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €7MModel A €5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Diant Ramaj's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 66th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 80th, European club minutes 32nd66thMinutes62ndStarts80thRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

3,060 this player1,560 goalkeeper median80th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,970

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Jul 2019
Peak
€18M
May 2024
Model target
€7M
May 2026
Valuations
19
4 club changes
May 2026€7M1.FC Heidenheim 1846Valuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €7M, 1.FC Heidenheim 1846. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-07-01€100k1.FC Heidenheim 1846
2019-12-13€150k1.FC Heidenheim 1846
2020-11-18€250k1.FC Heidenheim 1846
2021-02-08€250k1.FC Heidenheim 1846
2021-06-16€250k1.FC Heidenheim 1846
2021-12-22€250kEintracht Frankfurt
2022-03-24€500kEintracht Frankfurt
2022-06-09€750kEintracht Frankfurt
2022-11-09€750kEintracht Frankfurt
2023-06-22€750kEintracht Frankfurt
2023-10-17€1MAjax Amsterdam
2023-12-15€5MAjax Amsterdam
2024-03-18€10MAjax Amsterdam
2024-05-31€18MAjax Amsterdam
2024-10-14€10MAjax Amsterdam
2024-12-17€7MAjax Amsterdam
2025-06-16€7MFC Copenhagen
2025-12-19€7M1.FC Heidenheim 1846
2026-05-27€7M1.FC Heidenheim 1846

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.335

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 56% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€7MSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 84% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€7MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Ramaj appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).