FairValue

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Portrait of Omar Marmoush

Omar

Marmoush

CFEgypt · Manchester City

№ 445939World Class €68M −0.31

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

OmarMarmoush

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Manchester City
League
Premier League
Nationality
Egypt
Age
27
Height
183 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Marmoush at €50M. Model A, which never saw Marmoush during training, estimates €68M: the market value is 27% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.36. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €52.3M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.31A €68M▼ −0.05B €52.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
86
Minutes
5,115
Goals
36
Assists
20
Started
59/86
Min / app
59
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Marmoush…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €50M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €50MModel A €68M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Omar Marmoush's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 96th, Assists per 90 95th, Minutes, two years 92nd, Starts 66th, Minutes, last 365 days 57th, European club minutes 79th96thGoals95thAssists92ndMinutes66thStarts57thRecent79thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.63 this player0.26 attacker median96th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●1.17

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Jul 2016
Peak
€75M
Mar 2025
Model target
€50M
Jun 2026
Valuations
29
7 club changes
Jun 2026€50MManchester CityValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €50M, Manchester City. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-07-01€25kWadi Degla FC
2017-01-11€50kWadi Degla FC
2017-07-20€100kWadi Degla FC
2018-02-09€100kVfL Wolfsburg II
2018-08-08€75kVfL Wolfsburg II
2019-02-24€50kVfL Wolfsburg II
2019-07-28€25kVfL Wolfsburg II
2019-10-27€75kVfL Wolfsburg II
2020-02-20€125kVfL Wolfsburg II
2020-07-08€400kVfL Wolfsburg
2021-02-08€750kFC St. Pauli
2021-03-29€1.5MFC St. Pauli
2021-06-16€2MFC St. Pauli
2021-10-07€4MVfB Stuttgart
2021-12-22€4.5MVfB Stuttgart
2022-06-09€6MVfB Stuttgart
2022-11-09€6MVfL Wolfsburg
2023-06-22€6MVfL Wolfsburg
2023-10-18€8MEintracht Frankfurt
2023-12-14€15MEintracht Frankfurt
2024-03-27€22MEintracht Frankfurt
2024-05-29€22MEintracht Frankfurt
2024-10-09€40MEintracht Frankfurt
2024-12-20€60MEintracht Frankfurt
2025-03-18€75MManchester City
2025-05-30€75MManchester City
2025-12-09€65MManchester City
2026-03-09€60MManchester City
2026-06-03€50MManchester City

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.308

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 88% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€50MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 97% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€50MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Marmoush appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).