Patrick
Osterhage
DMGermany · SC Freiburg
Player dossierBundesliga
PatrickOsterhage
DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- SC Freiburg
- League
- Bundesliga
- Nationality
- Germany
- Age
- 26
- Height
- 186 cm
- Foot
- Left
- Valued
- 27 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Osterhage at €12M. Model A, which never saw Osterhage during training, estimates €7.4M: the market value is 62% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.62. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.8M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 64
- Minutes
- 4,355
- Goals
- 3
- Assists
- 1
- Started
- 50/64
- Min / app
- 68
- Cards
- 11Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Osterhage…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €12M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
Minutes, two years
Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.
4,355 this player2,607 midfielder median79th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €300k
- Jul 2019
- Peak
- €12M
- Oct 2025
- Model target
- €12M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 19
- 2 club changes
May 2026: €12M, SC Freiburg. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2019-07-28 | €300k | Borussia Dortmund II |
| 2020-01-21 | €300k | Borussia Dortmund II |
| 2020-06-22 | €200k | Borussia Dortmund II |
| 2021-01-05 | €200k | Borussia Dortmund II |
| 2021-06-26 | €200k | Borussia Dortmund II |
| 2021-12-22 | €300k | VfL Bochum |
| 2022-03-24 | €900k | VfL Bochum |
| 2022-06-09 | €900k | VfL Bochum |
| 2022-11-09 | €1.5M | VfL Bochum |
| 2023-03-29 | €2M | VfL Bochum |
| 2023-06-22 | €4M | VfL Bochum |
| 2023-12-14 | €5.5M | VfL Bochum |
| 2024-03-27 | €7M | VfL Bochum |
| 2024-05-29 | €7M | VfL Bochum |
| 2024-12-20 | €8.5M | SC Freiburg |
| 2025-06-05 | €10M | SC Freiburg |
| 2025-10-14 | €12M | SC Freiburg |
| 2025-12-19 | €12M | SC Freiburg |
| 2026-05-27 | €12M | SC Freiburg |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.485
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Bundesliga451 players · median €5M
Valued above 70% of the 451 Bundesliga players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 81% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Osterhage appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- GoretzkaCMBayern Munich · Bundesliga€12M
- NübelGKVfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga€12M
- DahmenGKFC Augsburg · Bundesliga€12M
- FührichLWVfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga€12M
- SzymanskiAMStade Rennais FC · midfielders€12M
- CamaraCMStade Rennais FC · midfielders€12M
- OdgaardAMBologna FC 1909 · midfielders€12M
- KoopmeinersDMAZ Alkmaar · midfielders€12M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).