FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Ylber

Ramadani

DMAlbania · US Lecce

№ 442703Emerging €2.6M −0.35

Player dossierSerie A

YlberRamadani

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
US Lecce
League
Serie A
Nationality
Albania
Age
30
Height
185 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Ramadani at €1.8M. Model A, which never saw Ramadani during training, estimates €2.6M: the market value is 29% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.42. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.35A €2.6M▼ −0.65B €3.4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
68
Minutes
5,153
Goals
2
Assists
1
Started
59/68
Min / app
76
Cards
13Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ramadani…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.8M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.8MModel A €2.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Ylber Ramadani's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 26th, Assists per 90 16th, Minutes, two years 88th, Starts 82nd, Minutes, last 365 days 95th, European club minutes 30th26thGoals16thAssists88thMinutes82ndStarts95thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

3,249 this player1,541 midfielder median95th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,800

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€300k
Jun 2017
Peak
€4M
Jun 2024
Model target
€1.8M
May 2026
Valuations
22
4 club changes
May 2026€1.8MUS LecceValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1.8M, US Lecce. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-06-14€300kFK Partizani
2017-12-18€300kVejle Boldklub
2018-06-07€300kVejle Boldklub
2018-12-21€400kVejle Boldklub
2019-06-08€400kVejle Boldklub
2019-09-09€350kVejle Boldklub
2019-12-22€300kVejle Boldklub
2020-07-31€400kVejle Boldklub
2020-12-23€400kVejle Boldklub
2021-06-04€450kVejle Boldklub
2022-01-07€400kMTK Budapest
2022-06-07€450kMTK Budapest
2022-12-13€650kAberdeen FC
2023-06-26€800kAberdeen FC
2023-10-11€1.8MUS Lecce
2023-12-20€3.8MUS Lecce
2024-06-05€4MUS Lecce
2024-12-18€4MUS Lecce
2025-03-25€2.2MUS Lecce
2025-06-17€1.8MUS Lecce
2025-12-23€1.8MUS Lecce
2026-05-29€1.8MUS Lecce

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.349

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 18% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€1.8MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 44% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.8MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Ramadani appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).