FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Charles De Ketelaere

Charles De

Ketelaere

AMBelgium · Atalanta BC

№ 435772World Class €38.7M −0.25

Photo: Bryan Berlin / WikiPortraits, CC BY-SA 4.0 (background removed)

Player dossierSerie A

Charles DeKetelaere

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Atalanta BC
League
Serie A
Nationality
Belgium
Age
25
Height
192 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Ketelaere at €30M. Model A, which never saw Ketelaere during training, estimates €38.7M: the market value is 22% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.29. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €49.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.25A €38.7M▼ −0.50B €49.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
93
Minutes
6,111
Goals
18
Assists
21
Started
73/93
Min / app
66
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ketelaere…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €30M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €30MModel A €38.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Charles De Ketelaere's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 91st, Assists per 90 96th, Minutes, two years 95th, Starts 67th, Minutes, last 365 days 92nd, European club minutes 87th91stGoals96thAssists95thMinutes67thStarts92ndRecent87thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.31 this player0.09 midfielder median96th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.74

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Sept 2019
Peak
€38M
Dec 2024
Model target
€30M
May 2026
Valuations
23
2 club changes
May 2026€30MAtalanta BCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €30M, Atalanta BC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-09-13€100kClub Brugge KV
2019-12-13€1.5MClub Brugge KV
2020-02-10€5MClub Brugge KV
2020-03-30€8.5MClub Brugge KV
2020-04-08€7.6MClub Brugge KV
2020-08-06€9MClub Brugge KV
2020-10-16€12MClub Brugge KV
2021-01-04€16MClub Brugge KV
2021-06-07€16MClub Brugge KV
2021-10-06€25MClub Brugge KV
2022-01-06€27MClub Brugge KV
2022-04-12€30MClub Brugge KV
2022-11-11€30MAC Milan
2023-03-21€27MAC Milan
2023-06-15€22MAC Milan
2023-10-11€25MAtalanta BC
2023-12-20€25MAtalanta BC
2024-03-12€30MAtalanta BC
2024-06-05€34MAtalanta BC
2024-12-18€38MAtalanta BC
2025-06-17€35MAtalanta BC
2025-12-23€35MAtalanta BC
2026-05-29€30MAtalanta BC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.254

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 91% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€30MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 93% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€30MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Ketelaere appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).