FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Corrie

Ndaba

LBIreland · US Lecce

№ 433329Emerging €2.2M −0.89

Player dossierSerie A

CorrieNdaba

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
US Lecce
League
Serie A
Nationality
Ireland
Age
26
Height
188 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Ndaba at €900k. Model A, which never saw Ndaba during training, estimates €2.2M: the market value is 59% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.43. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €949k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.89A €2.2M▼ −0.05B €949k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
48
Minutes
3,385
Goals
1
Assists
0
Started
38/48
Min / app
71
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ndaba…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €900k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €900kModel A €2.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Corrie Ndaba's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 45th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 60th, Starts 43rd, Minutes, last 365 days 16th, European club minutes 61st45thGoals17thAssists60thMinutes43rdStarts16thRecent61stEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

0% this player0% defender median61st percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jan 2021
Peak
€900k
Oct 2025
Model target
€900k
May 2026
Valuations
11
5 club changes
May 2026€900kUS LecceValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €900k, US Lecce. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-01-18€50kAyr United FC
2022-07-29€100kIpswich Town
2023-04-05€200kFleetwood Town
2023-06-09€200kIpswich Town
2023-12-05€225kKilmarnock FC
2024-05-30€350kKilmarnock FC
2024-12-03€350kKilmarnock FC
2025-06-17€350kKilmarnock FC
2025-10-07€900kUS Lecce
2025-12-23€900kUS Lecce
2026-05-29€900kUS Lecce

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.888

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 7% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€900kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 33% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€900kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Ndaba appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).