FairValue

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Portrait of Bukayo Saka

Bukayo

Saka

RWEngland · Arsenal FC

№ 433177World Class €111M −0.01

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

BukayoSaka

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
Arsenal FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
England
Age
24
Height
178 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Saka at €110M. Model A, which never saw Saka during training, estimates €111M: the market value is 1% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.01. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €41.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.01A €111M▲ +0.98B €41.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
82
Minutes
5,673
Goals
23
Assists
22
Started
65/82
Min / app
69
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Saka…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €110M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €110MModel A €111M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Bukayo Saka's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 70th, Assists per 90 95th, Minutes, two years 96th, Starts 82nd, Minutes, last 365 days 97th, European club minutes 89th70thGoals95thAssists96thMinutes82ndStarts97thRecent89thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

3,173 this player1,301 attacker median97th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,703

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€7M
Sept 2019
Peak
€150M
Dec 2024
Model target
€110M
Jun 2026
Valuations
24
0 club changes
Jun 2026€110MArsenal FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €110M, Arsenal FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-09-23€7MArsenal FC
2019-12-10€13MArsenal FC
2020-03-09€22MArsenal FC
2020-04-08€20MArsenal FC
2020-07-30€35MArsenal FC
2020-10-13€40MArsenal FC
2021-03-18€60MArsenal FC
2021-05-28€65MArsenal FC
2021-12-23€65MArsenal FC
2022-06-15€65MArsenal FC
2022-09-15€70MArsenal FC
2022-11-03€90MArsenal FC
2022-12-23€100MArsenal FC
2023-03-16€110MArsenal FC
2023-06-20€120MArsenal FC
2023-12-19€120MArsenal FC
2024-03-14€130MArsenal FC
2024-05-27€140MArsenal FC
2024-12-16€150MArsenal FC
2025-05-30€150MArsenal FC
2025-10-17€140MArsenal FC
2025-12-09€130MArsenal FC
2026-03-09€120MArsenal FC
2026-06-03€110MArsenal FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.013

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

3rd highest observed value among 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€110MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

8th highest observed value among 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€110MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Saka appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).