John
Victor
GKBrazil · Nottingham Forest
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierPremier League
JohnVictor
GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper
- Club
- Nottingham Forest
- League
- Premier League
- Nationality
- Brazil
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 197 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 3 Jun 2026
Premier LeagueReading the valuation
The market values Victor at €5M. Model A, which never saw Victor during training, estimates €3.6M: the market value is 39% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.39. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 13
- Minutes
- 1,188
- Started
- 13/13
- Min / app
- 91
- Cards
- 1Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Victor…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €5M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers
Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
56% this player0% goalkeeper median99th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €100k
- May 2016
- Peak
- €8M
- Mar 2025
- Model target
- €5M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 23
- 6 club changes
Jun 2026: €5M, Nottingham Forest. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2016-05-27 | €100k | Santos FC U20 |
| 2016-11-28 | €100k | Santos FC U20 |
| 2017-12-07 | €50k | Santos FC B |
| 2019-08-15 | €50k | Santos FC B |
| 2019-11-27 | €50k | Santos FC B |
| 2020-09-09 | €50k | Santos FC |
| 2021-02-09 | €500k | Santos FC |
| 2021-05-28 | €500k | Santos FC |
| 2021-12-17 | €600k | Santos FC |
| 2022-04-06 | €600k | Santos FC |
| 2022-08-19 | €600k | Santos FC |
| 2022-11-14 | €1M | Santos FC |
| 2023-04-07 | €1M | Sport Club Internacional |
| 2023-07-25 | €1M | Sport Club Internacional |
| 2023-12-20 | €800k | Real Valladolid CF |
| 2024-03-28 | €900k | Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas |
| 2024-06-17 | €1.5M | Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas |
| 2024-09-27 | €3.5M | Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas |
| 2024-12-09 | €7M | Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas |
| 2025-03-28 | €8M | Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas |
| 2025-06-06 | €8M | Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas |
| 2025-12-09 | €7M | Nottingham Forest |
| 2026-06-03 | €5M | Nottingham Forest |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.332
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premier League555 players · median €18M
Valued above 21% of the 555 Premier League players.
See them in the Explorer →Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M
Valued above 79% of the 485 goalkeepers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Victor appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- WoodCFNottingham Forest · Premier League€5M
- NørgaardDMArsenal FC · Premier League€5M
- TarkowskiCBEverton FC · Premier League€5M
- Ward-ProwseCMBurnley FC · Premier League€5M
- PopeGKNewcastle United · goalkeepers€5M
- ArrizabalagaGKArsenal FC · goalkeepers€5M
- WellenreutherGKFeyenoord Rotterdam · goalkeepers€5M
- BayındırGKManchester United · goalkeepers€5M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).