FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Rihito

Yamamoto

DMJapan · Sint-Truidense VV

№ 432403Established €8.6M −0.20

Player dossierPro League

RihitoYamamoto

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
Sint-Truidense VV
League
Pro League
Nationality
Japan
Age
24
Height
179 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Yamamoto at €7M. Model A, which never saw Yamamoto during training, estimates €8.6M: the market value is 18% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.22. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €5.9M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.20A €8.6M▲ +0.17B €5.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
56
Minutes
4,239
Goals
5
Assists
9
Started
49/56
Min / app
76
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Yamamoto…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €7M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €7MModel A €8.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Rihito Yamamoto's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 58th, Assists per 90 82nd, Minutes, two years 77th, Starts 83rd, Minutes, last 365 days 95th, European club minutes 30th58thGoals82ndAssists77thMinutes83rdStarts95thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

3,291 this player1,541 midfielder median95th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,800

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Jun 2019
Peak
€7M
Jun 2026
Model target
€7M
Jun 2026
Valuations
19
2 club changes
Jun 2026€7MSint-Truidense VVValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €7M, Sint-Truidense VV. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-06-27€25kTokyo Verdy
2019-12-28€450kTokyo Verdy
2020-04-08€400kTokyo Verdy
2021-01-27€500kTokyo Verdy
2021-06-28€600kTokyo Verdy
2022-01-13€700kTokyo Verdy
2022-06-28€700kTokyo Verdy
2023-01-06€600kGamba Osaka
2023-06-28€600kGamba Osaka
2023-12-19€600kSint-Truidense VV
2024-06-04€700kSint-Truidense VV
2024-10-02€1.5MSint-Truidense VV
2024-12-11€1.2MSint-Truidense VV
2025-03-26€900kSint-Truidense VV
2025-06-12€900kSint-Truidense VV
2025-10-01€1.6MSint-Truidense VV
2025-12-10€3MSint-Truidense VV
2026-03-13€5MSint-Truidense VV
2026-06-04€7MSint-Truidense VV

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.201

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 92% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€7MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 71% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€7MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Yamamoto appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).