Lewis
Ferguson
CMScotland · Bologna FC 1909
Close-up
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierSerie A
LewisFerguson
CMCentral MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- Bologna FC 1909
- League
- Serie A
- Nationality
- Scotland
- Age
- 26
- Height
- 181 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 29 May 2026
Serie AReading the valuation
The market values Ferguson at €14M. Model A, which never saw Ferguson during training, estimates €10.5M: the market value is 34% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.34. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €10.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 69
- Minutes
- 4,435
- Goals
- 2
- Assists
- 1
- Started
- 49/69
- Min / app
- 64
- Cards
- 10Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ferguson…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €14M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
31% this player0% midfielder median96th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €150k
- Mar 2018
- Peak
- €28M
- Jun 2025
- Model target
- €14M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 25
- 2 club changes
May 2026: €14M, Bologna FC 1909. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2018-03-04 | €150k | Hamilton Academical FC |
| 2018-08-08 | €300k | Aberdeen FC |
| 2019-01-03 | €550k | Aberdeen FC |
| 2019-08-20 | €1M | Aberdeen FC |
| 2020-02-05 | €1.7M | Aberdeen FC |
| 2020-04-08 | €1.5M | Aberdeen FC |
| 2020-07-21 | €1.5M | Aberdeen FC |
| 2021-01-18 | €3M | Aberdeen FC |
| 2021-06-28 | €2.2M | Aberdeen FC |
| 2021-12-31 | €2M | Aberdeen FC |
| 2022-06-27 | €2M | Aberdeen FC |
| 2022-09-27 | €3.5M | Bologna FC 1909 |
| 2022-11-11 | €4M | Bologna FC 1909 |
| 2023-03-21 | €9M | Bologna FC 1909 |
| 2023-06-15 | €12M | Bologna FC 1909 |
| 2023-12-20 | €18M | Bologna FC 1909 |
| 2024-03-12 | €24M | Bologna FC 1909 |
| 2024-06-05 | €24M | Bologna FC 1909 |
| 2024-12-18 | €22M | Bologna FC 1909 |
| 2025-03-25 | €24M | Bologna FC 1909 |
| 2025-06-17 | €28M | Bologna FC 1909 |
| 2025-10-07 | €20M | Bologna FC 1909 |
| 2025-12-23 | €20M | Bologna FC 1909 |
| 2026-03-24 | €18M | Bologna FC 1909 |
| 2026-05-29 | €14M | Bologna FC 1909 |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.292
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Serie A507 players · median €5.5M
Valued above 73% of the 507 Serie A players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 83% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Ferguson appears
- TerminalSerie A in the Player Explorer
- TerminalSerie A on the League Landscape
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- ÇelikRBAS Roma · Serie A€14M
- KoopmeinersDMJuventus FC · Serie A€14M
- PiccoliCFACF Fiorentina · Serie A€14M
- CambiaghiLWBologna FC 1909 · Serie A€14M
- StageCMSV Werder Bremen · midfielders€14M
- WillockCMNewcastle United · midfielders€14M
- NygrenAMCeltic FC · midfielders€14M
- MusahCMAtalanta BC · midfielders€14M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).