FairValue

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Portrait of Nahuel Molina

Nahuel

Molina

RBArgentina · Atlético de Madrid

№ 424042Elite €12.5M +0.18

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierLaLiga

NahuelMolina

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
Atlético de Madrid
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Argentina
Age
28
Height
179 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Molina at €15M. Model A, which never saw Molina during training, estimates €12.5M: the market value is 20% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.20. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €19.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.18A €12.5M▼ −0.25B €19.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
92
Minutes
4,797
Goals
3
Assists
7
Started
47/92
Min / app
52
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Molina…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €15M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €15MModel A €12.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Nahuel Molina's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 68th, Assists per 90 85th, Minutes, two years 80th, Starts 9th, Minutes, last 365 days 74th, European club minutes 89th68thGoals85thAssists80thMinutes9thStarts74thRecent89thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

24% this player0% defender median89th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€600k
Aug 2016
Peak
€50M
Oct 2023
Model target
€15M
Jun 2026
Valuations
27
5 club changes
Jun 2026€15MAtlético de MadridValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €15M, Atlético de Madrid. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-08-08€600kCA Boca Juniors II
2017-02-13€400kCA Boca Juniors II
2017-10-09€300kCA Boca Juniors II
2018-05-08€1MDefensa y Justicia
2018-12-18€750kDefensa y Justicia
2019-08-06€1MCA Rosario Central
2019-12-05€2.5MCA Rosario Central
2020-04-08€2MCA Boca Juniors II
2020-10-29€4.5MUdinese Calcio
2020-12-29€4MUdinese Calcio
2021-03-23€5MUdinese Calcio
2021-06-03€7MUdinese Calcio
2021-07-16€10MUdinese Calcio
2021-12-28€10MUdinese Calcio
2022-06-07€20MUdinese Calcio
2022-11-07€18MAtlético de Madrid
2022-12-23€22MAtlético de Madrid
2023-03-23€24MAtlético de Madrid
2023-06-13€35MAtlético de Madrid
2023-10-13€50MAtlético de Madrid
2023-12-22€45MAtlético de Madrid
2024-03-21€35MAtlético de Madrid
2024-06-07€28MAtlético de Madrid
2024-12-27€25MAtlético de Madrid
2025-06-09€20MAtlético de Madrid
2025-12-12€15MAtlético de Madrid
2026-06-05€15MAtlético de Madrid

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.184

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 80% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€15MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 87% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€15MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Molina appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).