FairValue

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Portrait of Billy Gilmour

Billy

Gilmour

DMScotland · SSC Napoli

№ 423744Elite €7M +1.05

Close-up

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierSerie A

BillyGilmour

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
SSC Napoli
League
Serie A
Nationality
Scotland
Age
24
Height
170 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Gilmour at €20M. Model A, which never saw Gilmour during training, estimates €7M: the market value is 187% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.87. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +1.05A €7M▲ +2.16B €2.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
50
Minutes
2,339
Goals
1
Assists
1
Started
25/50
Min / app
47
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Gilmour…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €20M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €20MModel A €7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Billy Gilmour's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 28th, Assists per 90 23rd, Minutes, two years 44th, Starts 21st, Minutes, last 365 days 27th, European club minutes 63rd28thGoals23rdAssists44thMinutes21stStarts27thRecent63rdEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

4% this player0% midfielder median63rd percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€2.5M
Sept 2019
Peak
€20M
Jun 2025
Model target
€20M
May 2026
Valuations
21
5 club changes
May 2026€20MSSC NapoliValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €20M, SSC Napoli. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-09-25€2.5MChelsea FC U23
2019-12-10€3MChelsea FC U23
2020-03-09€6MChelsea FC
2020-04-08€5.4MChelsea FC
2020-10-13€7.5MChelsea FC
2021-03-18€7MChelsea FC
2021-05-28€10MChelsea FC
2021-10-05€15MNorwich City
2021-12-23€15MNorwich City
2022-03-29€12MNorwich City
2022-06-15€12MChelsea FC
2022-11-03€12MBrighton & Hove Albion
2023-03-16€9MBrighton & Hove Albion
2023-06-20€12MBrighton & Hove Albion
2023-10-09€18MBrighton & Hove Albion
2023-12-19€18MBrighton & Hove Albion
2024-05-27€18MBrighton & Hove Albion
2024-12-18€16MSSC Napoli
2025-06-17€20MSSC Napoli
2025-12-23€20MSSC Napoli
2026-05-29€20MSSC Napoli

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+1.053

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 82% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€20MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 88% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€20MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Gilmour appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).