FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Caio

Henrique

LBBrazil · AS Monaco

№ 420064Elite €8.1M +0.39

Player dossierLigue 1

CaioHenrique

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
AS Monaco
League
Ligue 1
Nationality
Brazil
Age
28
Height
178 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
1 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Henrique at €12M. Model A, which never saw Henrique during training, estimates €8.1M: the market value is 47% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.47. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €8.3M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.39A €8.1M▲ +0.37B €8.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
67
Minutes
4,808
Goals
0
Assists
8
Started
53/67
Min / app
72
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Henrique…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €12M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €12MModel A €8.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Caio Henrique's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 88th, Minutes, two years 81st, Starts 43rd, Minutes, last 365 days 71st, European club minutes 91st18thGoals88thAssists81stMinutes43rdStarts71stRecent91stEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

26% this player0% defender median91st percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€300k
Aug 2017
Peak
€20M
May 2022
Model target
€12M
Jun 2026
Valuations
22
4 club changes
Jun 2026€12MAS MonacoValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €12M, AS Monaco. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-08-17€300kAtlético Madrileño
2018-01-01€300kAtlético Madrileño
2018-05-23€800kParaná Clube
2019-02-18€1.3MFluminense Football Club
2019-11-27€1.5MFluminense Football Club
2020-04-08€1.2MGrêmio Foot-Ball Porto Alegrense
2020-10-12€5MAS Monaco
2021-01-07€8MAS Monaco
2021-04-09€10MAS Monaco
2021-06-04€12MAS Monaco
2021-10-08€16MAS Monaco
2021-12-16€18MAS Monaco
2022-05-30€20MAS Monaco
2022-11-02€20MAS Monaco
2023-06-27€20MAS Monaco
2023-12-18€20MAS Monaco
2024-06-03€20MAS Monaco
2024-12-10€18MAS Monaco
2025-03-24€15MAS Monaco
2025-06-03€15MAS Monaco
2025-12-15€15MAS Monaco
2026-06-01€12MAS Monaco

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.387

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Ligue 1423 players · median €5M

Valued above 72% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€12MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 84% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€12MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Henrique appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).