Lucas
França
GKBrazil · CD Nacional
Player dossierLiga Portugal
LucasFrança
GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper
- Club
- CD Nacional
- League
- Liga Portugal
- Nationality
- Brazil
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 194 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 28 May 2026
Liga PortugalReading the valuation
The market values França at €600k. Model A, which never saw França during training, estimates €510k: the market value is 18% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.18. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €694k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 40
- Minutes
- 3,555
- Started
- 40/40
- Min / app
- 89
- Cards
- 7Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for França…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €600k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers
Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)
Minutes, two years
Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.
3,555 this player2,790 goalkeeper median63rd percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €100k
- May 2016
- Peak
- €1M
- May 2025
- Model target
- €600k
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 16
- 5 club changes
May 2026: €600k, CD Nacional. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2016-05-27 | €100k | Unknown |
| 2016-11-28 | €100k | Unknown |
| 2017-12-07 | €50k | Cruzeiro Esporte Clube |
| 2018-05-23 | €50k | Cruzeiro Esporte Clube |
| 2019-01-11 | €100k | CD Nacional |
| 2019-06-07 | €100k | CD Nacional |
| 2019-11-27 | €100k | Ceará Sporting Club |
| 2021-08-12 | €150k | Cruzeiro Esporte Clube |
| 2022-12-28 | €75k | CD Nacional |
| 2023-06-28 | €175k | CD Nacional |
| 2023-12-14 | €375k | CD Nacional |
| 2024-06-20 | €600k | CD Nacional |
| 2024-12-19 | €800k | CD Nacional |
| 2025-05-30 | €1M | CD Nacional |
| 2025-12-18 | €600k | CD Nacional |
| 2026-05-28 | €600k | CD Nacional |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.162
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M
Valued above 27% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.
See them in the Explorer →Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M
Valued above 32% of the 485 goalkeepers.
See them in the Explorer →Where França appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- BuatuCBGil Vicente FC · Liga Portugal€600k
- FerreiraGKMoreirense FC · Liga Portugal€600k
- BermejoRWGil Vicente FC · Liga Portugal€600k
- CostaLBGD Estoril Praia · Liga Portugal€600k
- LeshchukGKDynamo Moscow · goalkeepers€600k
- GallonGKFCV Dender EH · goalkeepers€600k
- VasyutinGKAkron Tolyatti · goalkeepers€600k
- McCrorieGKEsbjerg fB · goalkeepers€600k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).