FairValue

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Portrait of Jhon Lucumí

Jhon

Lucumí

CBColombia · Bologna FC 1909

№ 413565Elite €15.3M +0.36

Close-up

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierSerie A

JhonLucumí

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Bologna FC 1909
League
Serie A
Nationality
Colombia
Age
27
Height
187 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Lucumí at €22M. Model A, which never saw Lucumí during training, estimates €15.3M: the market value is 43% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.43. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €20.3M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.36A €15.3M▲ +0.08B €20.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
87
Minutes
7,103
Goals
2
Assists
2
Started
80/87
Min / app
82
Cards
19Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Lucumí…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €22M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €22MModel A €15.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Jhon Lucumí's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 44th, Assists per 90 41st, Minutes, two years 98th, Starts 76th, Minutes, last 365 days 97th, European club minutes 85th44thGoals41stAssists98thMinutes76thStarts97thRecent85thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

7,103 this player2,860 defender median98th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,111

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Mar 2016
Peak
€25M
Oct 2025
Model target
€22M
May 2026
Valuations
28
2 club changes
May 2026€22MBologna FC 1909Valuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €22M, Bologna FC 1909. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-03-15€100kDeportivo Cali
2016-09-01€125kDeportivo Cali
2016-11-10€175kDeportivo Cali
2017-01-31€300kDeportivo Cali
2018-03-07€350kDeportivo Cali
2018-06-08€400kDeportivo Cali
2018-09-11€2.2MKRC Genk
2018-12-27€4.5MKRC Genk
2019-06-10€8MKRC Genk
2019-12-13€8MKRC Genk
2020-04-08€7.2MKRC Genk
2020-10-16€8MKRC Genk
2021-01-04€9MKRC Genk
2021-03-17€11MKRC Genk
2021-06-07€11MKRC Genk
2021-10-06€13MKRC Genk
2022-01-06€12MKRC Genk
2022-04-12€10MKRC Genk
2022-05-26€9MKRC Genk
2022-11-11€9MBologna FC 1909
2023-06-15€12MBologna FC 1909
2023-12-20€11MBologna FC 1909
2024-06-05€17MBologna FC 1909
2024-12-18€18MBologna FC 1909
2025-06-17€22MBologna FC 1909
2025-10-07€25MBologna FC 1909
2025-12-23€25MBologna FC 1909
2026-05-29€22MBologna FC 1909

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.360

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 85% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€22MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 92% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€22MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Lucumí appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).