Lucão
GKBrazil · Gil Vicente FC
Player dossierLiga Portugal
Lucão
GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper
- Club
- Gil Vicente FC
- League
- Liga Portugal
- Nationality
- Brazil
- Age
- 25
- Height
- 190 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 28 May 2026
Liga PortugalReading the valuation
The market values Lucão at €1.2M. Model A, which never saw Lucão during training, estimates €564k: the market value is 113% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×2.13. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €601k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 8
- Minutes
- 720
- Started
- 8/8
- Min / app
- 90
- Cards
- 0Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Lucão…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.2M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers
Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
100% this player100% goalkeeper median62nd percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €250k
- Feb 2020
- Peak
- €1.5M
- Aug 2021
- Model target
- €1.2M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 16
- 3 club changes
May 2026: €1.2M, Gil Vicente FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2020-02-20 | €250k | Unknown |
| 2020-09-09 | €250k | Unknown |
| 2021-02-09 | €500k | Unknown |
| 2021-08-12 | €1.5M | Clube de Regatas Vasco da Gama |
| 2022-04-06 | €1.5M | Red Bull Bragantino |
| 2022-08-19 | €1.5M | Red Bull Bragantino |
| 2022-11-14 | €1.5M | Red Bull Bragantino |
| 2023-04-07 | €1.5M | Red Bull Bragantino |
| 2023-07-25 | €1.5M | Red Bull Bragantino |
| 2023-12-11 | €1.5M | Red Bull Bragantino |
| 2024-03-28 | €1.5M | Red Bull Bragantino |
| 2024-06-17 | €1.5M | Red Bull Bragantino |
| 2024-12-09 | €1.5M | Red Bull Bragantino |
| 2025-06-06 | €1.5M | Red Bull Bragantino |
| 2025-12-10 | €1.2M | Red Bull Bragantino |
| 2026-05-28 | €1.2M | Gil Vicente FC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.755
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M
Valued above 51% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.
See them in the Explorer →Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M
Valued above 52% of the 485 goalkeepers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Lucão appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- LopesRWCD Tondela · Liga Portugal€1.2M
- BóiaLWCD Nacional · Liga Portugal€1.2M
- EeCMFC Arouca · Liga Portugal€1.2M
- DanteLBFC Arouca · Liga Portugal€1.2M
- FernandesGKHamburger SV · goalkeepers€1.2M
- CoosemansGKRSC Anderlecht · goalkeepers€1.2M
- PaleariGKTorino FC · goalkeepers€1.2M
- MontipòGKHellas Verona · goalkeepers€1.2M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).