FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Rodrygo

RWBrazil · Real Madrid

№ 412363World Class €37.4M +0.18

Player dossierLaLiga

Rodrygo

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
Real Madrid
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Brazil
Age
25
Height
174 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Rodrygo at €45M. Model A, which never saw Rodrygo during training, estimates €37.4M: the market value is 20% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.20. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €20.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.18A €37.4M▲ +0.80B €20.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
80
Minutes
4,490
Goals
16
Assists
17
Started
49/80
Min / app
56
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Rodrygo…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €45M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €45MModel A €37.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Rodrygo's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 61st, Assists per 90 94th, Minutes, two years 86th, Starts 54th, Minutes, last 365 days 46th, European club minutes 93rd61stGoals94thAssists86thMinutes54thStarts46thRecent93rdEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.34 this player0.15 attacker median94th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.73

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Dec 2017
Peak
€110M
Jun 2024
Model target
€45M
Jun 2026
Valuations
22
1 club change
Jun 2026€45MReal MadridValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €45M, Real Madrid. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-12-07€100kSantos FC
2018-05-23€10MSantos FC
2019-02-18€40MSantos FC
2019-08-01€40MReal Madrid
2019-12-20€50MReal Madrid
2020-04-08€45MReal Madrid
2020-10-08€45MReal Madrid
2021-01-05€45MReal Madrid
2021-06-10€35MReal Madrid
2021-12-30€40MReal Madrid
2022-06-03€60MReal Madrid
2022-09-23€70MReal Madrid
2022-11-07€80MReal Madrid
2023-06-13€100MReal Madrid
2023-12-22€100MReal Madrid
2024-06-07€110MReal Madrid
2024-12-27€100MReal Madrid
2025-06-09€90MReal Madrid
2025-10-02€80MReal Madrid
2025-12-12€60MReal Madrid
2026-03-16€50MReal Madrid
2026-06-05€45MReal Madrid

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.184

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 95% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€45MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 96% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€45MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Rodrygo appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).