FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Pascal Struijk

Pascal

Struijk

CBNetherlands · Leeds United

№ 410708Elite €20.2M +0.08

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

PascalStruijk

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Leeds United
League
Premier League
Nationality
Netherlands
Age
26
Height
190 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Struijk at €22M. Model A, which never saw Struijk during training, estimates €20.2M: the market value is 9% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.09. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €6.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.08A €20.2M▲ +1.20B €6.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
37
Minutes
3,167
Goals
0
Assists
1
Started
35/37
Min / app
86
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Struijk…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €22M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €22MModel A €20.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Pascal Struijk's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 43rd, Minutes, two years 56th, Starts 83rd, Minutes, last 365 days 92nd, European club minutes 30th18thGoals43rdAssists56thMinutes83rdStarts92ndRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

3,167 this player1,687 defender median92nd percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,941

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€750k
Oct 2020
Peak
€22M
Mar 2026
Model target
€22M
Jun 2026
Valuations
18
0 club changes
Jun 2026€22MLeeds UnitedValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €22M, Leeds United. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-10-13€750kLeeds United
2020-12-17€2.5MLeeds United
2021-03-18€7MLeeds United
2021-06-08€9MLeeds United
2021-12-23€9MLeeds United
2022-03-29€15MLeeds United
2022-06-15€15MLeeds United
2022-09-15€18MLeeds United
2022-11-03€20MLeeds United
2023-06-20€18MLeeds United
2023-12-21€18MLeeds United
2024-05-24€15MLeeds United
2024-12-30€16MLeeds United
2025-05-27€18MLeeds United
2025-10-17€20MLeeds United
2025-12-09€20MLeeds United
2026-03-09€22MLeeds United
2026-06-03€22MLeeds United

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.085

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 59% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€22MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 92% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€22MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Struijk appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).