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Keito

Nakamura

LWJapan · Stade Reims

№ 405397Elite €3.9M +0.95

Player dossierLigue 1

KeitoNakamura

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
Stade Reims
League
Ligue 1
Nationality
Japan
Age
25
Height
180 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Nakamura at €10M. Model A, which never saw Nakamura during training, estimates €3.9M: the market value is 158% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.58. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.95A €3.9M▲ +1.35B €2.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
32
Minutes
2,662
Goals
11
Assists
2
Started
31/32
Min / app
83
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Nakamura…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €10M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €10MModel A €3.9M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Keito Nakamura's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 72nd, Assists per 90 20th, Minutes, two years 60th, Starts 99th, Minutes, last 365 days 1st, European club minutes 28th72ndGoals20thAssists60thMinutes99thStarts1stRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

97% this player59% attacker median99th percentile

5%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€400k
Jan 2019
Peak
€12M
Oct 2023
Model target
€10M
May 2026
Valuations
26
5 club changes
May 2026€10MStade ReimsValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €10M, Stade Reims. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-01-05€400kGamba Osaka
2019-05-23€500kGamba Osaka
2019-09-19€750kFC Twente Enschede
2019-12-18€900kFC Twente Enschede
2020-04-08€800kFC Twente Enschede
2020-10-16€800kSint-Truidense VV
2021-01-04€600kSint-Truidense VV
2021-03-23€300kFC Juniors OÖ
2021-05-26€225kFC Juniors OÖ
2021-09-06€400kLASK
2021-12-16€800kLASK
2022-05-27€1.5MLASK
2022-09-20€3.5MLASK
2022-11-10€4MLASK
2023-03-20€5MLASK
2023-06-12€8MLASK
2023-10-16€12MStade Reims
2023-12-18€10MStade Reims
2024-06-03€9MStade Reims
2024-10-07€10MStade Reims
2024-12-10€12MStade Reims
2025-03-24€10MStade Reims
2025-06-03€8MStade Reims
2025-12-11€8MStade Reims
2026-03-23€9MStade Reims
2026-05-26€10MStade Reims

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.947

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Ligue 1423 players · median €5M

Valued above 66% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 77% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Nakamura appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).