FairValue

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Dani

Fernández

RBSpain · Krylya Sovetov Samara

№ 403187Emerging €897k −0.25

Player dossierPremier Liga

DaniFernández

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
Krylya Sovetov Samara
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Spain
Age
29
Height
178 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Fernández at €700k. Model A, which never saw Fernández during training, estimates €897k: the market value is 22% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.28. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €964k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.25A €897k▼ −0.32B €964k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
47
Minutes
3,673
Goals
1
Assists
4
Started
40/47
Min / app
78
Cards
9Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Fernández…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €700k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €700kModel A €897k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Dani Fernández's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 44th, Assists per 90 77th, Minutes, two years 64th, Starts 56th, Minutes, last 365 days 53rd, European club minutes 30th44thGoals77thAssists64thMinutes56thStarts53rdRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.10 this player0.04 defender median77th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Aug 2016
Peak
€800k
Dec 2024
Model target
€700k
May 2026
Valuations
24
10 club changes
May 2026€700kKrylya Sovetov SamaraValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €700k, Krylya Sovetov Samara. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-08-01€150kReal Madrid Castilla
2016-10-27€250kMérida AD
2017-02-02€300kMérida AD
2017-08-17€200kReal Madrid Castilla
2018-01-01€200kCF Fuenlabrada
2018-11-23€100kReal Madrid Castilla
2019-02-19€100kReal Madrid Castilla
2019-06-29€100kReal Madrid Castilla
2019-12-20€200kCF Fuenlabrada
2020-07-23€200kCF Fuenlabrada
2020-10-08€200kCD Badajoz
2021-01-08€250kCD Badajoz
2021-06-30€300kCD Badajoz
2021-12-30€350kCD Badajoz
2022-06-29€400kCD Badajoz
2022-12-29€400kRacing Santander
2023-03-24€500kRacing Santander
2023-06-14€600kRacing Santander
2023-12-20€600kRacing Santander
2024-06-24€600kRacing Santander
2024-12-12€800kFC Khimki
2025-06-04€800kFC Khimki
2025-12-12€800kAsteras Aktor
2026-05-26€700kKrylya Sovetov Samara

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.247

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 24% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€700kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 26% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€700kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Fernández appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).