FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Julián

Chicco

DMArgentina · Asteras Aktor

№ 401583Emerging €446k +0.01

Player dossierSuper League

JuliánChicco

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
Asteras Aktor
League
Super League
Nationality
Argentina
Age
28
Height
187 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Chicco at €450k. Model A, which never saw Chicco during training, estimates €446k: the market value is 1% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.01. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €747k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.01A €446k▼ −0.51B €747k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
30
Minutes
953
Goals
1
Assists
2
Started
8/30
Min / app
32
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Chicco…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €450k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €450kModel A €446k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Julián Chicco's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 54th, Assists per 90 81st, Minutes, two years 12th, Starts 4th, Minutes, last 365 days 12th, European club minutes 30th54thGoals81stAssists12thMinutes4thStarts12thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.19 this player0.09 midfielder median81st percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.74

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€350k
Aug 2016
Peak
€1M
Dec 2018
Model target
€450k
Jun 2026
Valuations
19
5 club changes
Jun 2026€450kAsteras AktorValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €450k, Asteras Aktor. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-08-08€350kCA Boca Juniors II
2017-02-13€450kCA Boca Juniors II
2017-10-09€600kCA Boca Juniors II
2018-12-18€1MCA Boca Juniors II
2019-08-06€750kCA Patronato
2019-12-05€900kCA Patronato
2020-04-08€800kCA Patronato
2021-10-20€700kCA Sarmiento (Junin)
2022-05-24€575kCA Sarmiento (Junin)
2022-10-26€425kCA Colón
2023-07-04€650kCA Colón
2023-10-13€800kCD Leganés
2023-12-20€1MCD Leganés
2024-06-24€1MCD Leganés
2024-12-27€800kCD Leganés
2025-03-21€600kCD Leganés
2025-06-09€500kCD Leganés
2025-12-12€500kAsteras Aktor
2026-06-04€450kAsteras Aktor

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.009

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 35% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€450kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 15% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€450kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Chicco appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).