Exequiel
Palacios
CMArgentina · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierBundesliga
ExequielPalacios
CMCentral MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- League
- Bundesliga
- Nationality
- Argentina
- Age
- 27
- Height
- 177 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 27 May 2026
BundesligaReading the valuation
The market values Palacios at €25M. Model A, which never saw Palacios during training, estimates €14.8M: the market value is 69% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.69. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €8.7M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 63
- Minutes
- 3,703
- Goals
- 1
- Assists
- 7
- Started
- 41/63
- Min / app
- 59
- Cards
- 7Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Palacios…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €25M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
27% this player0% midfielder median93rd percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €300k
- Feb 2016
- Peak
- €45M
- May 2024
- Model target
- €25M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 25
- 2 club changes
May 2026: €25M, Bayer 04 Leverkusen. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2016-02-06 | €300k | CA River Plate II |
| 2016-08-08 | €300k | CA River Plate II |
| 2017-10-09 | €1.5M | CA River Plate |
| 2018-05-08 | €3.8M | CA River Plate |
| 2018-12-18 | €20M | CA River Plate |
| 2019-08-06 | €20M | CA River Plate |
| 2019-12-05 | €25M | CA River Plate |
| 2020-04-08 | €22.5M | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 2020-07-08 | €18M | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 2021-02-10 | €18M | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 2021-03-31 | €13M | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 2021-06-09 | €13M | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 2021-10-07 | €15M | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 2021-12-22 | €15M | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 2022-06-09 | €15M | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 2022-11-09 | €15M | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 2023-06-22 | €22M | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 2023-10-18 | €35M | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 2023-12-14 | €40M | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 2024-05-29 | €45M | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 2024-12-20 | €40M | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 2025-06-05 | €40M | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 2025-10-14 | €30M | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 2025-12-19 | €30M | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 2026-05-27 | €25M | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.525
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Bundesliga451 players · median €5M
Valued above 87% of the 451 Bundesliga players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 91% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Palacios appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- RaumLBRB Leipzig · Bundesliga€25M
- RyersonRBBorussia Dortmund · Bundesliga€25M
- SeiwaldDMRB Leipzig · Bundesliga€25M
- HendriksCBVfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga€25M
- LocatelliDMJuventus FC · midfielders€25M
- KluivertAMAFC Bournemouth · midfielders€25M
- AdamsDMAFC Bournemouth · midfielders€25M
- BergeDMFulham FC · midfielders€25M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).