FairValue

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Portrait of Jadon Sancho

Jadon

Sancho

LWEngland · Aston Villa

№ 401173Elite €29.8M −0.50

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

JadonSancho

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
Aston Villa
League
Premier League
Nationality
England
Age
26
Height
180 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Sancho at €18M. Model A, which never saw Sancho during training, estimates €29.8M: the market value is 40% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.65. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €9.9M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.50A €29.8M▲ +0.59B €9.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
72
Minutes
3,554
Goals
4
Assists
8
Started
38/72
Min / app
49
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Sancho…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €18M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €18MModel A €29.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Jadon Sancho's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 14th, Assists per 90 71st, Minutes, two years 74th, Starts 39th, Minutes, last 365 days 62nd, European club minutes 82nd14thGoals71stAssists74thMinutes39thStarts62ndRecent82ndEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

19% this player0% attacker median82nd percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€5M
Aug 2017
Peak
€130M
Mar 2020
Model target
€18M
Jun 2026
Valuations
30
4 club changes
Jun 2026€18MAston VillaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €18M, Aston Villa. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-08-31€5MBorussia Dortmund
2017-12-28€5MBorussia Dortmund
2018-04-04€8MBorussia Dortmund
2018-06-05€15MBorussia Dortmund
2018-08-22€20MBorussia Dortmund
2018-10-22€45MBorussia Dortmund
2018-12-18€70MBorussia Dortmund
2019-03-06€80MBorussia Dortmund
2019-06-05€100MBorussia Dortmund
2019-12-17€120MBorussia Dortmund
2020-03-11€130MBorussia Dortmund
2020-04-08€117MBorussia Dortmund
2020-11-26€100MBorussia Dortmund
2021-02-10€100MBorussia Dortmund
2021-05-28€100MBorussia Dortmund
2021-10-05€90MManchester United
2021-12-23€85MManchester United
2022-03-29€80MManchester United
2022-06-15€75MManchester United
2022-11-03€60MManchester United
2023-03-16€55MManchester United
2023-06-20€45MManchester United
2023-10-09€32MManchester United
2023-12-19€25MManchester United
2024-05-29€30MBorussia Dortmund
2024-12-16€30MChelsea FC
2025-05-30€28MChelsea FC
2025-10-17€25MAston Villa
2025-12-09€20MAston Villa
2026-06-03€18MAston Villa

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.503

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 50% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€18MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 85% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€18MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Sancho appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).