Mathieu
Cafaro
RWFrance · Paris FC
Player dossierLigue 1
MathieuCafaro
RWRight WingerAttack
- Club
- Paris FC
- League
- Ligue 1
- Nationality
- France
- Age
- 29
- Height
- 175 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 1 Jun 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Cafaro at €1.5M. Model A, which never saw Cafaro during training, estimates €1.1M: the market value is 31% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.31. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €611k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 25
- Minutes
- 878
- Goals
- 1
- Assists
- 0
- Started
- 10/25
- Min / app
- 35
- Cards
- 3Y 1R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Cafaro…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.5M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers
Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
0% this player0% attacker median28th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €150k
- Nov 2016
- Peak
- €7.5M
- Jun 2019
- Model target
- €1.5M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 23
- 4 club changes
Jun 2026: €1.5M, Paris FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2016-11-01 | €150k | FC Toulouse |
| 2017-01-16 | €600k | FC Toulouse |
| 2018-05-16 | €600k | Stade Reims |
| 2018-10-24 | €1M | Stade Reims |
| 2018-12-17 | €2.5M | Stade Reims |
| 2019-03-07 | €4M | Stade Reims |
| 2019-06-03 | €7.5M | Stade Reims |
| 2019-12-19 | €7.5M | Stade Reims |
| 2020-04-08 | €6M | Stade Reims |
| 2020-10-15 | €6M | Stade Reims |
| 2021-04-09 | €7M | Stade Reims |
| 2021-06-04 | €7M | Stade Reims |
| 2021-12-16 | €5M | Stade Reims |
| 2022-04-12 | €4M | Standard Liège |
| 2022-10-28 | €3M | AS Saint-Étienne |
| 2023-04-06 | €2.5M | AS Saint-Étienne |
| 2023-06-16 | €3M | AS Saint-Étienne |
| 2023-12-13 | €2.5M | AS Saint-Étienne |
| 2024-06-11 | €2.5M | AS Saint-Étienne |
| 2024-12-10 | €2M | AS Saint-Étienne |
| 2025-06-02 | €2.5M | Paris FC |
| 2025-12-15 | €2M | Paris FC |
| 2026-06-01 | €1.5M | Paris FC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.266
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Ligue 1423 players · median €5M
Valued above 13% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.
See them in the Explorer →Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M
Valued above 37% of the 1,583 attackers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Cafaro appears
- TerminalLigue 1 in the Player Explorer
- TerminalLigue 1 on the League Landscape
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- HradeckyGKAS Monaco · Ligue 1€1.5M
- MeunierRBLOSC Lille · Ligue 1€1.5M
- LalaRBStade Brestois 29 · Ligue 1€1.5M
- SchmidtCMFC Toulouse · Ligue 1€1.5M
- GregoritschCFFC Augsburg · attackers€1.5M
- BelottiCFCagliari Calcio · attackers€1.5M
- BeckerLW1.FSV Mainz 05 · attackers€1.5M
- GlatzelCFHamburger SV · attackers€1.5M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).