FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Finlay

Robertson

CMScotland · Dundee FC

№ 396540Emerging €327k +0.61

Player dossierPremiership

FinlayRobertson

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Dundee FC
League
Premiership
Nationality
Scotland
Age
23
Height
171 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
20 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Robertson at €600k. Model A, which never saw Robertson during training, estimates €327k: the market value is 83% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.83. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.9M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.61A €327k▼ −1.15B €1.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
51
Minutes
2,830
Goals
2
Assists
5
Started
29/51
Min / app
55
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Robertson…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €600k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €600kModel A €327k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Finlay Robertson's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 40th, Assists per 90 74th, Minutes, two years 54th, Starts 30th, Minutes, last 365 days 36th, European club minutes 30th40thGoals74thAssists54thMinutes30thStarts36thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.16 this player0.09 midfielder median74th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.74

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Aug 2019
Peak
€600k
May 2026
Model target
€600k
May 2026
Valuations
14
1 club change
May 2026€600kDundee FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €600k, Dundee FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-08-17€50kDundee FC U18
2020-02-05€200kDundee FC U18
2020-07-21€200kDundee FC
2021-01-18€200kDundee FC
2021-06-03€200kDundee FC
2022-06-27€150kDundee FC
2022-12-13€150kDundee FC
2023-06-26€125kDundee FC
2023-12-05€150kDundee FC
2024-05-30€200kDundee FC
2024-12-03€200kDundee FC
2025-06-17€200kDundee FC
2025-12-10€300kDundee FC
2026-05-20€600kDundee FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.607

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premiership311 players · median €400k

Valued above 63% of the 311 Premiership players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€600kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 20% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€600kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Robertson appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).