Tobias
Lawal
GKAustria · KRC Genk
Player dossierPro League
TobiasLawal
GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper
- Club
- KRC Genk
- League
- Pro League
- Nationality
- Austria
- Age
- 25
- Height
- 194 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 4 Jun 2026
Pro LeagueReading the valuation
The market values Lawal at €2M. Model A, which never saw Lawal during training, estimates €2.3M: the market value is 15% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.17. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 26
- Minutes
- 2,370
- Started
- 26/26
- Min / app
- 91
- Cards
- 2Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Lawal…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €2M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers
Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
32% this player0% goalkeeper median95th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €100k
- Jul 2018
- Peak
- €3M
- Oct 2025
- Model target
- €2M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 19
- 1 club change
Jun 2026: €2M, KRC Genk. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2018-07-02 | €100k | LASK |
| 2018-12-19 | €175k | LASK |
| 2019-06-01 | €250k | LASK |
| 2019-12-16 | €300k | LASK |
| 2020-07-22 | €300k | LASK |
| 2020-12-21 | €500k | LASK |
| 2021-06-02 | €500k | LASK |
| 2021-12-16 | €350k | LASK |
| 2022-05-25 | €300k | LASK |
| 2022-11-10 | €300k | LASK |
| 2023-06-12 | €500k | LASK |
| 2023-09-11 | €800k | LASK |
| 2023-12-11 | €1.5M | LASK |
| 2024-05-21 | €2.5M | LASK |
| 2024-12-17 | €2.5M | LASK |
| 2025-06-06 | €2.5M | LASK |
| 2025-10-01 | €3M | KRC Genk |
| 2025-12-10 | €2.5M | KRC Genk |
| 2026-06-04 | €2M | KRC Genk |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.159
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Pro League350 players · median €1.8M
Valued above 50% of the 350 Pro League players.
See them in the Explorer →Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M
Valued above 59% of the 485 goalkeepers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Lawal appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- HazardAMRSC Anderlecht · Pro League€2M
- KayembeLBKRC Genk · Pro League€2M
- SchoofsCMUnion Saint-Gilloise · Pro League€2M
- AyensaCFStandard Liège · Pro League€2M
- SommerGKInter Milan · goalkeepers€2M
- SkorupskiGKBologna FC 1909 · goalkeepers€2M
- RönnowGK1.FC Union Berlin · goalkeepers€2M
- JohnstoneGKWolverhampton Wanderers · goalkeepers€2M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).