César

Montes

CBMexico · Lokomotiv Moscow

№ 387687Established €7.4M +0.01

Player dossierPremier Liga

CésarMontes

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club: Lokomotiv Moscow
League: Premier Liga
Nationality: Mexico
Age: 29
Height: 195 cm
Foot: Right
Valued: 26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Montes at €7.5M. Model A, which never saw Montes during training, estimates €7.4M: the market value is 1% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.01. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.7M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 48
Minutes: 4,057
Goals: 6
Assists: 1
Started: 47/48
Min / app: 85
Cards: 7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Montes…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €7.5M

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.13 this player0.03 defender median93rd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €1M; Jan 2015
Peak: €8M; Mar 2023
Model target: €7.5M; May 2026
Valuations: 29; 4 club changes

May 2026€7.5MLokomotiv MoscowValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €7.5M, Lokomotiv Moscow. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2015-01-08	€1M	CF Monterrey U20
2016-01-13	€1M	CF Monterrey
2016-08-04	€2.5M	CF Monterrey
2016-12-16	€2.5M	CF Monterrey
2017-07-31	€3M	CF Monterrey
2018-04-10	€3M	CF Monterrey
2018-08-23	€4M	CF Monterrey
2019-02-08	€5M	CF Monterrey
2019-08-13	€5M	CF Monterrey
2020-01-10	€6.5M	CF Monterrey
2020-04-08	€5.2M	CF Monterrey
2020-06-27	€5M	CF Monterrey
2020-12-18	€6M	CF Monterrey
2021-04-21	€6M	CF Monterrey
2021-10-15	€7M	CF Monterrey
2022-04-11	€7M	CF Monterrey
2022-10-31	€7M	CF Monterrey
2023-03-23	€8M	RCD Espanyol Barcelona
2023-06-13	€8M	RCD Espanyol Barcelona
2023-10-13	€6M	UD Almería
2023-12-22	€5M	UD Almería
2024-03-21	€3M	UD Almería
2024-06-07	€3M	UD Almería
2024-09-18	€5M	Lokomotiv Moscow
2024-12-12	€5M	Lokomotiv Moscow
2025-06-04	€4.5M	Lokomotiv Moscow
2025-09-18	€6M	Lokomotiv Moscow
2025-12-16	€7M	Lokomotiv Moscow
2026-05-26	€7.5M	Lokomotiv Moscow

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: +0.008

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 92% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

See them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 78% of the 2,065 defenders.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Montes appears

TerminalPremier Liga in the Player Explorer
TerminalPremier Liga on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).