FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Danilho Doekhi

Danilho

Doekhi

CBNetherlands · 1.FC Union Berlin

№ 387047Elite €7.7M +0.52

Close-up

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierBundesliga

DanilhoDoekhi

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
1.FC Union Berlin
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Netherlands
Age
27
Height
190 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Doekhi at €13M. Model A, which never saw Doekhi during training, estimates €7.7M: the market value is 69% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.69. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €5.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.52A €7.7M▲ +0.84B €5.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
73
Minutes
6,600
Goals
8
Assists
1
Started
73/73
Min / app
90
Cards
9Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Doekhi…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €13M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €13MModel A €7.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Danilho Doekhi's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 89th, Assists per 90 35th, Minutes, two years 96th, Starts 97th, Minutes, last 365 days 95th, European club minutes 30th89thGoals35thAssists96thMinutes97thStarts95thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player83% defender median97th percentile

18%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Feb 2016
Peak
€17M
Jun 2023
Model target
€13M
May 2026
Valuations
27
4 club changes
May 2026€13M1.FC Union BerlinValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €13M, 1.FC Union Berlin. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-02-05€50kExcelsior Rotterdam U19
2016-07-01€150kAjax Amsterdam U19
2017-02-02€150kAjax Amsterdam U19
2017-06-21€150kAjax Amsterdam U19
2018-03-01€250kAjax Amsterdam U21
2018-06-29€250kAjax Amsterdam U21
2018-12-28€500kVitesse Arnhem
2019-06-12€750kVitesse Arnhem
2019-09-19€900kVitesse Arnhem
2019-12-18€900kVitesse Arnhem
2020-04-08€800kVitesse Arnhem
2020-10-14€800kVitesse Arnhem
2021-01-06€1MVitesse Arnhem
2021-03-09€2MVitesse Arnhem
2021-05-19€3MVitesse Arnhem
2022-01-05€3MVitesse Arnhem
2022-06-08€4MVitesse Arnhem
2022-11-09€4M1.FC Union Berlin
2023-03-29€12M1.FC Union Berlin
2023-06-22€17M1.FC Union Berlin
2023-12-14€17M1.FC Union Berlin
2024-05-29€17M1.FC Union Berlin
2024-12-20€15M1.FC Union Berlin
2025-03-27€13M1.FC Union Berlin
2025-06-05€13M1.FC Union Berlin
2025-12-19€13M1.FC Union Berlin
2026-05-27€13M1.FC Union Berlin

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.524

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 74% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€13MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 86% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€13MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Doekhi appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).