FairValue

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Riccardo

Sottil

LWItaly · US Lecce

№ 386455Established €3.7M −0.21

Player dossierSerie A

RiccardoSottil

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
US Lecce
League
Serie A
Nationality
Italy
Age
26
Height
180 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Sottil at €3M. Model A, which never saw Sottil during training, estimates €3.7M: the market value is 19% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.24. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.8M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.21A €3.7M▲ +0.49B €1.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
50
Minutes
2,255
Goals
4
Assists
4
Started
25/50
Min / app
45
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Sottil…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3MModel A €3.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Riccardo Sottil's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 26th, Assists per 90 55th, Minutes, two years 50th, Starts 35th, Minutes, last 365 days 41st, European club minutes 65th26thGoals55thAssists50thMinutes35thStarts41stRecent65thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

6% this player0% attacker median65th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Oct 2016
Peak
€9M
Dec 2021
Model target
€3M
May 2026
Valuations
24
7 club changes
May 2026€3MUS LecceValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €3M, US Lecce. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-10-31€50kFiorentina Primavera
2017-06-26€175kFiorentina Primavera
2018-06-30€350kFiorentina Primavera
2018-12-20€400kACF Fiorentina
2019-06-05€1.5MDelfino Pescara 1936
2019-10-08€2.5MACF Fiorentina
2019-12-12€4MACF Fiorentina
2020-04-08€3.6MACF Fiorentina
2020-08-25€3.6MACF Fiorentina
2020-10-29€5MCagliari Calcio
2020-12-29€7MCagliari Calcio
2021-06-03€7MCagliari Calcio
2021-12-28€9MACF Fiorentina
2022-06-07€9MACF Fiorentina
2022-11-11€9MACF Fiorentina
2023-06-15€8MACF Fiorentina
2023-12-20€8MACF Fiorentina
2024-03-12€6.5MACF Fiorentina
2024-06-05€6MACF Fiorentina
2024-12-18€6MACF Fiorentina
2025-06-17€5MAC Milan
2025-10-07€3.5MUS Lecce
2025-12-23€3.5MUS Lecce
2026-05-29€3MUS Lecce

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.212

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 29% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 52% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Sottil appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).